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If Big-Hands Matter the Most; Then Why Don’t Players Who Bet that Way, Have the Profit to Show for It? - Part Two

I received a number of follow-up PM’s and e-mails concerning my betting-approach that I described in Part One.  Most of them asked about the basis of thinking behind the MP-Style bet-making process that I had described; so needless to say, I am happy to do that.


Doin' It, MP-style , Explained


~My advantage-play betting-method prescribes starting out with LARGE initial wagers on your Top-2 Place-bets, and keeping them at that same-value for much LONGER as a hand progresses.


~ The idea here is that if you start out with under-sized bets and try to build them up into the size that they should have been at in the first place; then you are wasting most of what should be pure profit (and also wasting the most productive and consistently-repeatable portion of each point-cycle) by having to re-invest most of your early-hand revenue (instead of collecting it as pure profit).


~By starting with LARGE initial-value wagers that are more reflective of your actual real-world Top Two Place-bets edge; your bet-values not only echo your overall AVERAGE-value 7-exposure comfort-level (if you averaged in all of your pressed-up wagers too); but they also allow more of the revenue that each winning-hit generates, to go straight into your rack as locked-in profit instead of having to be re-invested right back into that same hand as ever-increasing 7-exposure.


If you think about it; increasing your 7-exposure as a hand continues actually penalizes your
good shooting, but rewards your not-so-good shooting.


How?


Well, if you keep taking most of the revenue that your shooting produces during a
good hand, and you put a sizeable portion of it right back out on the table (as your hand-duration goes further and further out onto the thinnest, least-frequent trailing-edge limb of expectancy); aren’t your really just subconsciously taunting probability to take it all away by breaking off that limb when you are furthest out on it?


If that’s not a gambler’s mentality; then I don’t know what is.


While gambler’s
say they want to win; many actually have a strong sub-conscious urge to lose, and so they make increasing-risk/lower-likelihood bet-building decisions that take them to the losing side most often…and to the winning side least often. More importantly though, is the fact that their huge but rare headline-grabbing wins are never enough to erase the pernicious and more frequent losses that their current betting-methods incur.


Again, if that’s not a gambler’s mentality, then I don’t know what is.


On the other hand, advantage-play bettors not only
want to win; but nearly all of their bet-decisions are focused solely on the ways and means to get there.


If You Want to Know Why You Don't Get to Keep Most of Your Big-Hand Profit...Read On


This brings us right back to the central question of why, if big-hands matter the most (as they seem to for most players); then why don’t dice-influencers who bet that way, have much (if any)
overall profit to show for their accomplishments?


I’ll tell you why.


The answer lies in the fact that if you continually jeopardize more and more of your just-won revenue (by instantly re-investing most of it back into a hand that is now getting to the far end the duration-expectancy curve); then the more that now-larger investment becomes imperilled.


It’s like you are intentionally goading and taunting duration-expectancy to try to take it away from you…and unfortunately,
most of the time it does.


If you want to see for yourself why good shooters make poor money from this game; you only have to look as far as how they bet their money.


The simple fact is;
the longer a hand goes, and the more of your just-won money that you put right back into it; the less overall profit you will ever to be able to show for your current skills.


I know that sounds counter-intuitive, and I know most people won’t ever consider the possibility that that could even be remotely true; but it is.


If you think about frequency-duration for a second or two; you’ll begin to understand why banking on the most
infrequent hands to produce most of your money (and to make up for losses that hands of lesser-duration incur); is probably one of the worst ways to try to make overall NET-profit from this game.


Oh, don’t get me wrong, I still bet pretty heavily on my long-hands when they
do come along; but that’s not where most of my net-profit comes from. And if you ever stop to wonder why you don’t have more money to show for your current D-I efforts (in relation to the amount of money that you actually wager); then most of that shortfall can be traced directly back to how much emphasis and revenue-generating pressure that you put on your least-frequent hands.


Start Right to Finish Right


~If you start out with under-sized bets, most of your early-hand revenue has to be re-invested…and just as that is happening…you get closer and closer to the weakest end of your roll-duration expectancy-curve.


~A properly-sized starting wager on your Top Two Place-bets helps you to get to net-profit sooner…with less overall risk…because they produce most of their profit by utilizing the outcomes that occur most often during most of your hands (instead of trying to use a betting-method that requires abnormal-length hands to get anywhere close to the profit that your current talents deserve).


So How the Heck Does Your SRR-Rate Figure into All of This?


My betting-method prescribes that you only start pressing your wagers once your current point-cycle doubles past (
is two times longer than) your current SRR-rate. So an SRR-7 shooter would only start pressing once his point-cycle tosses exceed 14 rolls in this hand.


This one element recognizes your current SRR-rate…and the relative rarity of actually going past the
two-times-longer-than-SRR roll-duration point.


~Now there are those that will tell you that your SRR means almost nothing and therefore it should largely be ignored. However in doing so, you ignore what is most likely to happen during ~85% of your hands.


Think about that for a second.


If you know what is most likely to happen during ~85% of your hands; how the hell can you ignore that? And more importantly,
why would you want to?


Let me break it down for you:


~Only about one-third (33.98%) of an SRR-7 shooter’s point-cycle hands will ever get beyond seven p-c rolls…and 66% of them won’t.


~Only about
1-in-9 (11.54%) of his point-cycle hands will go beyond 14 tosses without a 7-Out. That means that he’ll 7-Out before exceeding his 14th p-c roll, about 88.46% of the time.


~Only about
1-in-22 (4.58%) of his point-cycle hands will go beyond 20 tosses without a 7-Out. That means that he’ll 7-Out before exceeding his 20th p-c roll, about 95% of the time.


~Only about
1-in-100 (0.98%) of his point-cycle hands will go beyond 30 tosses without a 7-Out. That means that he’ll 7-Out before exceeding his 30th p-c roll, about 99% of the time.


By telling you to largely ignore your SRR-rate and to disregard what happens during 85% of your hands; they are putting the onus on those
much rarer headline-grabbing home-run trailing-end of duration-expectancy hands.


That’s putting a lot of faith and a lot of revenue-making pressure on something that doesn’t occur
often enough or consistently enough to make a predictable profit from.


Admittedly, it is hard to break away from the,
“I only make good money off of less than 5% of my hands because so few of them actually go beyond the norm” Big Hand gambler’s mindset, and switch over to a seemingly more mundane approach that makes GOOD money off of 80% of your normal-length average-duration hands, and makes GREAT money off of the 1% or 2% or 3% that do go far beyond the norm.


Again though, you really have to ask yourself a serious question:


If you know what is most likely to happen during
~85% of your hands; how the hell can you ignore that? And more importantly, why the hell would you want to?


The fundamental difference in my MP-style
“average-hand” betting-approach versus others that put the earnings-onus on the long-duration ones; is what spells the difference between making pretty damn decent consistent money…or staying stuck at the same near-break-even point that many skilled dice-influencers commonly find themselves in almost all of the time, and despite their validated and well-documented edge.


~Yes, with my betting-approach you can eventually press those larger properly-sized-to-skill initial-value bets; but again, ideally you would only start to press them once your current hand doubles past (is two-times longer than) your SRR-rate.


~In the simplest terms; if you ignore your SRR-rate; then you also ignore what your skills are most likely to produce in and around an average hand. If your point-cycle SRR-rate is 7; then that means that you will produce an average of seven point-cycle rolls before 7’ing-Out. Now obviously, some point-cycles will go longer than that; but what is most surprising, is that very few ever go beyond the double-your-current-SRR point.


Why ignore that fact? Why not work with what your skills are most likely to produce most often?


~If you continually reinvest whatever revenue your Place-bets produce during an ‘average hand’ in the hopes that it might turn into THE hand; then you are banking on the abnormal, much-better-than-average hands to produce your profit; and I’m here to tell you that it’s not likely to work out very good for you in the long run when you honestly tabulate your overall wins and losses.


In other words, your long-hands
WILL produce a nice profit at that specific moment, but when you figure in all of your hands; you likely find that your current bank-on-big-hands betting-method still produces an overall loss or a miniscule near-break-even profit.


That’s a tough, almost impossible way to generate any real bankroll growth.


Why Is It So Hard to Make an OVERALL Profit if You Start with Under-Sized Wagers and Bet Aggressively During Long Hands?


It’s because during your longer-than-normal hands, it will
FEEL like you are doing the right thing…your bet values are growing and you are raking in some decent current-hand profit; however, you are actually putting undue burden and an unhelpful strain on your average-hands (which remember, make up about 85% of all your turns with the dice); thereby turning your shorter-than-stellar hands into negative-growth bankroll-robbers instead of positive-growth bankroll-contributors.


By staging your bets in such a way that your small starting-value wagers are used as the
foundation to build larger and larger same-hand 7-exposure values (where your bet-values form what look like an upside-down pyramid) during longer hands; you end up exposing most of your 7-exposure money during the most-infrequent hands…and the least of your 7-exposure money during the ones that occur most frequently.


That’s the
opposite of common sense, and it's why the start-small-build-big method doesn't produce much overall net-profit, though admittedly it does make for some great and memorable Big Hand war-stories.


So When Do We Start Pressing With my MP-style Approach?


~An SRR-7 shooter would only start pressing a just-hit winning wager only after all of his current 7-exposure wagers have been fully paid for…and a net-profit of 50% over and above his total current 7-exposure has been locked-up in his rack…and he has tossed at least 14 point-cycle rolls.


That may seem like a pretty high threshold to overcome before you start pressing your bets; but if you stop to think about it, it makes great financial sense.


Under my MP-style betting-method, most of your profit-making action happens during
normal-length, average-duration hands. It doesn’t take abnormal-length hands to get the job done; because it is done much sooner and much more often using your most-frequently occurring ones.


That way, the mini-mega hands are the cherr
y on top of an already huge and delicious (and profitable) sundae, instead of trying to make the cherry itself into the entire money-making meal.


~ So once this hand’s point-cycle duration has doubled past (is two-times longer than) your current SRR-rate and you’ve recouped the entire value of the 7-exposure money you have on the layout and you’ve racked at least a 50% profit over and above that 7-exposure amount; then you can start to press your wagers.


How you press them after that is entirely up to you (though I do have a thought or two on this subject as well). What is more important is that you make a decent profit on your hands that are
BELOW (shorter than) the infrequent, astonishing-length outsized-duration ones that you are counting on now for most of your profit-generation.


Let me show you why so much of your profit can and should come from normal-length average-duration hands:


Again, only about
one-third (33.98%) of an SRR-7 shooter’s point-cycle hands will ever get beyond seven p-c rolls…and 66% of them won’t.


~Only about 1-in-9 (11.54%) of his point-cycle hands will go beyond 14 tosses without a 7-Out. That means that he’ll 7-Out before exceeding his 14th p-c roll, about 88.46% of the time.


~Only about 1-in-22 (4.58%) of his point-cycle hands will go beyond 20 tosses without a 7-Out. That means that he’ll 7-Out before exceeding his 20th p-c roll, about 95% of the time.


~Only about
1-in-100 (0.98%) of his point-cycle hands will go beyond 30 tosses without a 7-Out. That means that he’ll 7-Out before exceeding his 30th p-c roll, about 99% of the time.


Those are the cold hard facts about dice-influencing, and that is why structuring an aggressive betting-scheme that is set up to take maximum advantage of those long mini-mega hands that do come along once in a while…are mostly destined to make great m-board headlines…but leave the bettor none the richer.


As I said before;
the best way to make money from dice-influencing is not to deny the facts, but rather to be guided by them.


As always,


Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.


The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2009

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on February 8, 2009 12:16 AM.

The previous post in this blog was If Big-Hands Matter the Most; Then Why Don’t Players Who Bet that Way, Have the Profit to Show for It? - Part One.

The next post in this blog is Can You Fool Your Bankroll into THINKING and ACTING Like It Is Bigger? - Part Six.

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