Jan 25, 2009, 6:25pm, Mr. Clean wrote:
If Big-Hands Matter the Most; Then Why Don’t Players Who Bet that Way, Have the Profit to Show for It? - Part One
Jan 25, 2009, 6:25pm, Mr. Clean wrote:
MP, I know that it’s impossible to predict when an extended or monster hand will show when I have the dice. I have had an 8 and a 9 pass hand in the casino in the last few months. I had an 11 pass hand at my table last night.
The thing is, they’re becoming much more frequent and that’s a good thing.
Here’s the bad thing; I really don't have any idea how to properly bet it for max return. I don't want to be caught with my pants down the next time one shows. There is a fine line between having too much of your profit sitting on the table vs. under-betting the hand.
If you don't properly bet a rare monster hand when it shows, then the casino wins again. I know there really isn't enough information here for a proper answer, but I think you should educate all of us so we know what our moves are before one of these gems show.
I also know there are many different opinions as to what to do, but most will revolve around extremely aggressive pressing of Place-bets. I have a feeling that’s not the answer because the seven is coming and I would hate to see the dealer use a snow shovel to clear the layout of what used to be my money.
You are correct Mr. Clean, super-aggressive bet-pressing is NOT the answer, though most people seem to think it is…which is why their overall net-winnings will never, ever catch up to their overall net-losses as long as they continue to bet that way.
First of all, let’s not denigrate multi-Point hands, especially the five or eight or ten-Point ones. They are a sight to see and a joy to behold, especially when it comes from your own shooting and it is you that be holdin’ the dice when it happens. Sorry, I couldn't help myself on that pun.
Seriously though, let’s look at how frequently, or rather how infrequently long hands actually happen.
If you throw a five or six-Point hand once every 10 times you get the dice; then sure, you can adjust your betting-approach to reflect that kind of high frequency. However, if you are only tossing a mega-hand, let’s say once every 50 or 100 hands; then in order to take maximal advantage of the BIG ONE…all of your lesser-duration hands have to suffer…which means your bankroll growth will remain stunted.
To my mind, the profit generated by those long-duration, hyper-Point hands should be the cherry on top of what is ALREADY a very scrumptious ice-cream Sundae...and frankly the size of that cherry is about the same size in relation to the rest of the Sundae, as your mega-hands are in relation to the ones of shorter-but-still-inherently-profitable “average-length” hands.
Now admittedly this is a hard pill to swallow for former-gamblers-turned-dice-influencer’s who don’t fully understand, or at least don't fully appreciate how de-randomizing the dice tips the house-edge just a little in the player’s favour. Unfortunately it is in that lack-of-knowledge condition that they formulate their betting-strategies…and sadly, their bankrolls continue to suffer because of that lack of full-understanding.
In other words, by hoping, praying, and structuring their bets in such a way that they’ll be poised to take advantage of the BIG ONE; they actually short-change themselves on the hands that are of lesser length.
Let’s follow a typical hand to find out why:
~Let’s say that you have a sufficiently-validated point-cycle Sevens-to-Rolls-Ratio of 1:7 (SRR-7).
~You start off each self-thrown hands with under-sized bets that you plan to press into something big if and when the Big One comes along.
~You collect from a few winning-hits before you start to press because you want most of your base wagering costs to be covered if a 7-Out does show up in the meantime.
~Most of the income that subsequent (post break-even) winning-hits generate, are re-invested into bet-presses, and whatever crumbs are left over are either racked or spent of middle-of-the-table props.
~If you employ a collect-one/press-one strategy; you’ll be racking more profit, but your bet-values won’t be growing anywhere near as fast as someone who is pressing, power-pressing, or parlaying their wins.
~The collect-one/press-one bettor will collect a larger net-profit more often than someone who uses a press-it-to-the-moon strategy; but most of his hands that are just slightly longer than normal will still only produce a negligible profit (if any) about 80% of the time.
So, what's a girl to do?
~A great rule of thumb you can easily use to evaluate ANY betting-method, regardless of how tame or aggressive it is; is to add up the cumulative number of rolls you make over let’s say 50 or 100 hands, and then honestly divide your net-profit by that number.
So for example, if you make 475 tosses over 50 hands, and the total net-profit from your own shooting is, let’s say $1000; then you are making about $2.10 per toss.
~It’s instructive to go through an exercise like this because you can see in plain and simple terms what your current betting schemes are doing for you during the mega-hands...but also what they aren’t doing for you during the more mundane but much more plentiful average-duration ones.
Admittedly Mr. Clean, my approach is unconventional because it generates most of its profit from the more commonplace run-of-the-mill average-duration hands that you routinely throw about 85% of the time.
My advantage-play betting-method proscribes starting out with much LARGER initial bets on your Top-2 Place-bets, and keeping them at that same-value for much LONGER as a hand progresses.
Yes, you can eventually press these bets, but ideally you would only start to press them once this current hand doubles past (is two-times longer than) your SRR-rate.
So, for example, an SRR-7 shooter would only start pressing a just-hit winning wager (by no more than 50% of it's starting-value) only after all of his current 7-exposure wagers have been fully paid for…and a net-profit of 50% over and above his current 7-exposure has been racked…and he has tossed at least 14 point-cycle rolls.
If those numbers seem a little arbitrary, they aren’t.
It’s based on a couple of cold hard facts about dice-influencing.
~Only about one-third (33.98%) of an SRR-7 shooter’s point-cycle hands will ever get beyond seven p-c rolls…and 66% of them won’t.
~Only about 1-in-9 (11.54%) of his point-cycle hands will go beyond 14 tosses without a 7-Out. That means that he’ll 7-Out before exceeding his 14th p-c roll, about 88.46% of the time.
~Only about 1-in-22 (4.58%) of his point-cycle hands will go beyond 20 tosses without a 7-Out. That means that he’ll 7-Out before exceeding his 20th p-c roll, about 95% of the time.
~Only about 1-in-100 (0.98%) of his point-cycle hands will go beyond 30 tosses without a 7-Out. That means that he’ll 7-Out before exceeding his 30th p-c roll, about 99% of the time.
Those are the facts, and that is why structuring an aggressive betting-scheme that is set up to take maximum advantage of those long mini-mega hands that do come along once in a while…are mostly destined to make great m-board headlines…but leave the bettor none the richer.
The best way to make money from dice-influencing is not to deny the facts, but rather to be guided by them.
Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
The Mad Professor
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