« ALL, TALL, & SMALL | Main | If Big-Hands Matter the Most; Then Why Don’t Players Who Bet that Way, Have the Profit to Show for It? - Part Two »

If Big-Hands Matter the Most; Then Why Don’t Players Who Bet that Way, Have the Profit to Show for It? - Part One

Jan 25, 2009, 6:25pm, Mr. Clean wrote:

If Big-Hands Matter the Most; Then Why Don’t Players Who Bet that Way, Have the Profit to Show for It? - Part  One

Jan 25, 2009, 6:25pm, Mr. Clean wrote:

MP, I know that it’s impossible to predict when an extended or monster hand will show when I have the dice. I have had an 8 and a 9 pass hand in the casino in the last few months. I had an 11 pass hand at my table last night.

The thing is, they’re becoming much more frequent and that’s a good thing.

Here’s the bad thing; I really don't have any idea how to properly bet it for max return. I don't want to be caught with my pants down the next time one shows. There is a fine line between having too much of your profit sitting on the table vs. under-betting the hand.

If you don't properly bet a rare monster hand when it shows, then the casino wins again. I know there really isn't enough information here for a proper answer, but I think you should educate all of us so we know what our moves are before one of these gems show.

I also know there are many different opinions as to what to do, but most will revolve around extremely aggressive pressing of Place-bets. I have a feeling that’s not the answer because the seven is coming and I would hate to see the dealer use a snow shovel to clear the layout of what used to be my money.

You are correct Mr. Clean, super-aggressive bet-pressing is NOT the answer, though most people seem to think it is…which is why their overall net-winnings will never, ever catch up to their overall net-losses as long as they continue to bet that way.

First of all, let’s not denigrate multi-Point hands, especially the five or eight or ten-Point ones. They are a sight to see and a joy to behold, especially when it comes from your own shooting and it is you that be holdin’ the dice when it happens. Sorry, I couldn't help myself on that pun.

Seriously though, let’s look at how
frequently, or rather how infrequently long hands actually happen.

If you throw a five or six-Point hand once every 10 times you get the dice; then sure, you can adjust your betting-approach to reflect that kind of high frequency. However, if you are only tossing a mega-hand, let’s say once every 50 or 100 hands; then in order to take maximal advantage of the
BIG ONE…all of your lesser-duration hands have to suffer…which means your bankroll growth will remain stunted.

To my mind, the profit generated by those long-duration, hyper-Point hands should be the cherry on top of what is
ALREADY a very scrumptious ice-cream Sundae...and frankly the size of that cherry is about the same size in relation to the rest of the Sundae, as your mega-hands are in relation to the ones of shorter-but-still-inherently-profitable “average-length” hands.

Now admittedly this is a hard pill to swallow for former-gamblers-turned-dice-influencer’s who don’t fully understand, or at least don't fully
appreciate how de-randomizing the dice tips the house-edge just a little in the player’s favour. Unfortunately it is in that lack-of-knowledge condition that they formulate their betting-strategies…and sadly, their bankrolls continue to suffer because of that lack of full-understanding.

In other words, by hoping, praying, and structuring their bets in such a way that they’ll be poised to take advantage of the
BIG ONE; they actually short-change themselves on the hands that are of lesser length.


Let’s follow a typical hand to find out why:

~Let’s say that you have a sufficiently-validated point-cycle Sevens-to-Rolls-Ratio of 1:7 (SRR-7).

~You start off each self-thrown hands with
under-sized bets that you plan to press into something big if and when the Big One comes along.

~You collect from a few winning-hits before you start to press because you want most of your base wagering costs to be covered if a 7-Out does show up in the meantime.

~Most of the income that subsequent (post break-even) winning-hits generate, are
re-invested into bet-presses, and whatever crumbs are left over are either racked or spent of middle-of-the-table props.

~If you employ a
collect-one/press-one strategy; you’ll be racking more profit, but your bet-values won’t be growing anywhere near as fast as someone who is pressing, power-pressing, or parlaying their wins.

collect-one/press-one bettor will collect a larger net-profit more often than someone who uses a press-it-to-the-moon strategy; but most of his hands that are just slightly longer than normal will still only produce a negligible profit (if any) about 80% of the time.

So, what's a girl to do?

~A great rule of thumb you can easily use to evaluate ANY betting-method, regardless of how tame or aggressive it is; is to add up the cumulative number of rolls you make over let’s say 50 or 100 hands, and then honestly divide your net-profit by that number.

So for example, if you make 475 tosses over 50 hands, and the total net-profit from your own shooting is, let’s say $1000; then you are making about $2.10 per toss.

~It’s instructive to go through an exercise like this because you can see in plain and simple terms what your current betting schemes are doing for you during the mega-hands...but also what they aren’t doing for you during the more mundane but much more plentiful average-duration ones.

Mr. Clean, my approach is unconventional because it generates most of its profit from the more commonplace run-of-the-mill average-duration hands that you routinely throw about 85% of the time.

My advantage-play betting-method proscribes
starting out with much LARGER initial bets on your Top-2 Place-bets, and keeping them at that same-value for much LONGER as a hand progresses.

Yes, you can eventually press these bets, but ideally you would
only start to press them once this current hand doubles past (is two-times longer than) your SRR-rate.

So, for example, an SRR-7 shooter would only start pressing a just-hit winning wager (by no more than 50% of it's starting-value) only after all of his current 7-exposure wagers have been
fully paid for…and a net-profit of 50% over and above his current 7-exposure has been racked…and he has tossed at least 14 point-cycle rolls.

If those numbers
seem a little arbitrary, they aren’t.

It’s based on a couple of cold hard facts about dice-influencing.

~Only about one-third (33.98%) of an SRR-7 shooter’s point-cycle hands will ever get beyond seven p-c rolls…and 66% of them won’t.

~Only about 1-in-9 (11.54%) of his point-cycle hands will go beyond 14 tosses without a 7-Out. That means that he’ll 7-Out before exceeding his 14th p-c roll, about 88.46% of the time.

~Only about 1-in-22 (4.58%) of his point-cycle hands will go beyond 20 tosses without a 7-Out. That means that he’ll 7-Out before exceeding his 20th p-c roll, about 95% of the time.

~Only about 1-in-100 (0.98%) of his point-cycle hands will go beyond 30 tosses without a 7-Out. That means that he’ll 7-Out before exceeding his 30th p-c roll, about 99% of the time.

Those are the facts, and that is why structuring an aggressive betting-scheme that is set up to take maximum advantage of those long mini-mega hands that do come along once in a while…are mostly destined to make great m-board headlines…but leave the bettor none the richer.

The best way to make money from dice-influencing is not to deny the facts, but rather to be guided by them.

As always,

Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.

The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2009

Do you have questions or comments about the articles and subjects discussed here at the Dice Institute? Sign up for our member's forum and share them with us!


This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on February 7, 2009 8:34 PM.

The previous post in this blog was ALL, TALL, & SMALL.

The next post in this blog is If Big-Hands Matter the Most; Then Why Don’t Players Who Bet that Way, Have the Profit to Show for It? - Part Two.

Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.

Creative Commons License
This weblog is licensed under a Creative Commons License.
Powered by
Movable Type 3.34