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WARNING: This article contains a rant which some readers may find offensive or disturbing. Reader discretion is strongly advised.

~The answer is simple.

Your betting is not in synch with the hand-duration that you throw most frequently.

No wonder most guys have to use their long-hand winnings to bail out their shorter-hand losses. It’s not because of poor dice-influencing abilities; it’s because of poorbet-making decisions.

Most D-I gamblers take that route anyway simply because they not only don’t know any better; but also because they’ve been mistaught and unintentionally misled by the very same like-minded gamblers who also haven’t yet been able to turn their ownconsiderable D-I talents into sustainable bankroll-growing D-I profits.

In many ways, that co-dependant relationship serves to perpetuate the continuation of those losing ways from one talented dice-influencer to the next. By propagating the idea that we as dice-influencers need medium to long-hands to ‘get anywhere’ and to try to design "press, press, press" strategies that seek to take advantage of those mini-mega hands, only enables, breeds, and promulgates the continued losing for the vast majority of the D-I community.


Gambling dice-influencers love the RISK.


Advantage-play dice-influencers love the REWARD.


The Fat Part of the Point Cycle is fat because the bulk of your roll-duration resides near the front (start) of your point-cycle rather than at the back-end of it.

Advantage-play dice-influencers take advantage of their skills by taking advantage of the type of hands that they toss most often. Those are the average-length run-of-the-mill hands that last up to around 12 point-cycle rolls.

If you take proper advantage of those; you’ll never 'need' to toss a 20-roll or 30-roll or 50-roll hand again; but when you do, those mini-mega’s will be the cherry on the top of what is already a very profitable, very steady, and very sustainable sundae.

From the sublime to the ridiculous, that means you will have far more two-roll point-cycle hands than you will of 100-roll hands; and you will have far more p-c rolls that last from 7 to 12 tosses than you will of the 20, 30, 40, 50, or 60-toss variety.

If your betting is geared to taking advantage of the abnormal-length hands; then while those will definitely produce a profit from that particular hand; its value will be totally absorbed by paying for all the money you lost on lesser hands.

Dice-influencing is a valid advantage-play concept that proves out quite easily; but you have to put your money where you have the edge.

Most dice-influencers understand that idea in abstract, but they don't apply it when it comes to actually putting their money where it will do the most good.



Let’s take a careful look an SRR-7 shooter's point-cycle roll-duration to see how often ‘normal’ happens (as well as to see how banking on the 20-roll hands to make the bulk of your profit is the height if stupidity, unless of course you are banking on the 30-rollhands to do so, in which case that is an even higher height of stupidity).


~85.7% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 1 roll.

~73.5% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 2 rolls.

~63.0% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 3 rolls.

~54.0% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 4 rolls.

~46.3% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 5 rolls.

~39.7% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 6 rolls.

~34.0% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 7 rolls.

~29.2% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 8 rolls.

~25.0% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 9 rolls.

~21.4% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 10 rolls.

~18.4% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 11 rolls.

~15.8% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 12 rolls.

~13.5% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 13 rolls.

~11.6% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 14 rolls.

~9.9% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 15 rolls.

~8.5% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 16 rolls.

~7.3% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 17 rolls.

~6.3% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 18 rolls.

~5.4% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 19 rolls.

~4.6% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 20 rolls.

~3.9% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 21 rolls.

~3.4% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 22 rolls.

~2.9% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 23 rolls.

~2.5% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 24 rolls.

~2.1% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 25 rolls.

~1.8% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 26 rolls.

~1.6% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 27 rolls.

~1.3% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 28 rolls.

~1.1% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 29 rolls.

~0.98% of his point-cycle rolls will be longer than 30 rolls.



So, out of 100 hands, our SRR-7 shooter will get past his first point-cycle roll about86% of the time...and only get past his 30th p-c roll without a 7 about 1% of the time.

While short-hands may seem to be the cause of why you always end up needing those longer 20-roll hands; that isn’t the real underlying reason.

In other words, if you’ve been taught to believe that the 20-roll and 30-roll hands is where the profit is (and you’ve been taught to gear your betting to that); then you’ve been sold a bill of goods that will pretty much guarantee continued losses despite any big-dollar profits that those headline-grabbing hands will bring it.

The simple truth is that if you can’t make fairly decent money off of the shorteraverage-duration hands, and you really need the long 20-roll ones to make any kind of money; then it is your betting that is really holding back your net-earnings, and not the overall lack of long hands (or the fact that you seem to throw 'too many' average-duration ones).

Think about it.

Have you ever read a string of trip reports where a group of guys will lament the fact that their shared session, though peppered liberally with a bunch of 12 to 15-roll hands, and a few Point-then-Seven-Outs, “Never really got things going because nobody could muster a decent 20-roll hand to put everyone into a profit position".

Well let me let you in on a little secret:

If you need a 20-roll hand to “get you over the hump”; then most of your sessions will almost always show a net-loss.

More over, your losses will almost always outpace your wins; but even when they don’t, your profit will almost never be enough to offset your previous losses.

Oh sure, you’ll REMEMBER all those winning sessions like they are the names of your grandchildren, and you’ll be able to instantly recall many of the facts during its countless retelling when you gather with friends; but again the truth is:

If you need a 20-roll hand to make money; then your losses will almost always outstrip your wins.

No matter how good you get at this dice-influencing thing that we do, you are always going to throw an occasional PSO (Point-then-7-Out). However, if you scratch just a bit below the surface; you’ll find that PSO’s ARE NOT the reason you need 20-roll hands to make a profit, nor is the preponderance of average-duration hands the reason either.

The reason for those losses can almost always be traced back to THE WAY you are currently structuring your bets.

If your wagers are set up in such a way as to require multiple presses or way too many paying-hits before they show a net-sessional profit; then you are going to be disappointed with your losses way more often than you’ll be elated by your wins.

Even though talented dice-influencers do indeed throw quite a few more 20-roll hands than we expect from random-rollers (to the tune of 1.76 times more frequently for anSRR-7 shooter, and 2.66 times more frequently for an SRR-8 shooters, and 3.65times more frequently for an SRR-9 shooter); the fact is that 20-roll hands whileseeming to be quite common, are not all that frequent when you put it into perspective of the average number of hands (of lesser duration) that occur between each incidence of those much sought after 20-roll hands.

…and if you are counting on random-rollers to save the day for you with one of theiroccasional 20-roll hands; then do yourself a favor…

...Rip up your money into tiny little pieces and mail it into the casino.

That way, you’ll save the gas money of actually having to go there and losing it directly.

Likewise, if you try to rely on random-rollers to bail out your own off-day or off-session shooting; then it’s like putting your airline meal directly into the air-sickness bag. You are saving the hassle of going through a middle-man and the trouble of actually having to eat the meal.

A random-roller can sometimes serendipitously save your session; but most times it’s the major cause of a net-loss in the first place…and yet another chief reason why you need all those 20-roll hands in the first place.

Face it, you’re a little too old to believe in fairy tales, and you’re also a little too old to believe that you can turn a random-rollers neg-ex rolls into a reliably steady pos-ex payer OFTEN ENOUGH to make any money at it.

If you think otherwise; then you are living in a fantasy Dreamland, and merely deluding yourself.

The other reason that you'll often find yourself in need of 20-roll hands, is because your current betting is geared towards the long-hand end of the roll-duration spectrum. Again though, even in the hands of a talented shooter or a small group of talented shooters; those 20-roll hands don’t always occur frequently enough to show an OVERALL net-profit for the more-aggressive of bettors.

Oh sure, there will be times when you or other talented shooters DO string together a number of 20-roll hands in the same session; and those sessions will join the others that bear retelling when you gather over coffee or beer; but the reason they are so vividly recallable is because of their rareness of occurrence. I’m not saying that they don’t occur or that they don’t occur quite frequently; rather I’m just saying that they won't always occur often enough to continually bail your ass out of all the other losses you incur while waiting for those 20-roll hands to happen.


There's a ton of money that can be made off of each one of your 'normal' average-duration hands...and when you add each of them together; those profit-figures could far surpass the true NET-profit that you've ever made off ofall your mega-hands and mini-monsters...combined.

That's a lot of money to leave on the table...all the while hoping and praying that THIS HAND will be the world-beater you've been waiting for. That's not even close to what advantage-play betting is all about; but it sure goes a long way to explaining why just as much praying goes on in a casino as it does in a church.

Again, taking advantage of your D-I skills means taking advantage of the outcomes that you throw most often during the hand-durations that you throwmost frequently.

Frankly, if you haven’t figured out how to do THAT; then you will rarely be able to show a profit from your dice-influencing efforts, and whatever profit you do produce from the long-hands (when they do eventually come along), will be quickly absorbed and expended into trying to cover all of your previous losses.

That’s a fools errand that you don’t have to take.

Like I said, most D-I gamblers take that route anyway simply because they not only don’t know any better; but also because they’ve been mistaught and unintentionally misled by the very same like-minded gamblers who also haven’t yet been able to turntheir own considerable D-I talents into sustainable bankroll-growing D-I profits. In many ways, that co-dependant relationship serves to perpetuate the continuation of those losing ways from one talented dice-influencer to the next.

By propagating the idea that we as dice-influencers need medium to long-hands to ‘get anywhere’ and to try to design press, press, press strategies that seek to take advantage of those mini-mega hands, only enables, breeds, and promulgates the continued losing for the vast majority of the D-I community.

I mean, let’s be real here folks. Gamblers lose money.

Yes, they sometimes win; but their wins never outpace their losses.

If you want to continue losing money, just keep on betting the way they’ve taught you to bet, and you will continue to go backwards regardless of how good your dice-influencing talents become.

Your dice-influencing skills are only part of the advantage-play equation. Betting on the outcomes that your D-I talents produce, is how you take advantage of those talents.

Gamblers continue to need outside sources to prop up their gambling bankrolls; whereas dice-influencers who bet on the outcomes that are most likely to occur during an AVERAGE hand, continue to grow their bankrolls on a very steady and predictable basis.

Yes, it’s that simple. Sadly though, it’s a concept that’s totally unacceptable to those who love the risk of the CHASE more than they like the reward of the CATCH.

Gambling dice-influencers love the RISK.

Advantage-play dice-influencers love the REWARD.

Now I’m sure I could have said all of that with a little more kindness and with a little more homespun back-slapping glad-handed humor, or with a little more ordinary-Joe empathy and compassion; but frankly a friendly arm around your shoulder from a co-dependant enabler who encourages your dependence on the big hands while actually hampering your bankroll's recovery and pretty much eliminating all chances of sustainable bankroll growth is the last friggin’ thing you need more of.

So don’t look to me for that; others are much better at it than I could ever to be. Instead, this series offers you a common sense way to build your bankroll in a steady and sustainable way, by simply taking better advantage of the most-common, most-frequently-occurring outcomes from the normal-length hands that you produce most often.

That doesn’t take ANY luck whatsoever; it only takes a little bit of D-I skill, and a slightly open mind.

But if you’d still rather be lucky than good; then keep on dreaming and fantasizing about making it to the big league.

If on the other hand you are prepared to use your modest D-I talents to maximize your profits; then all it takes is a serious look at what your normal ‘average-hand’ produces, and the answer (as well as sustainable bankroll-growing profit) is right there for the taking.

We’re going to pursue this train of thought a lot further in Part Four. I hope you’ll join me for that.


Until then,


Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.

The Mad Professor
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