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My Not-So-Random Thought For Friday, July 13th, 2007

My Darkside-Shooting Come-Out Strategy

My approach to making money from the Come-Out cycle when I'm shooting from the Don't is obviously very similar to the way I make this play on the Rightside, only the 3 and 11 reverse their position in the pressing order and I see a fair bit more DP line-bet dilution due to the high appearance rate of C-O loser-7’s.

Ø Using the S-6 dice-set, I wager so that my DP-bet equals my C-O World-bet.

Ø That is, if I’ve got a $25 wager on the Don’t Pass line; then I’ll also make a $25 World-bet (aka “whirl” bet), which cover the 7, 2, 3, 11 and 12 with one $5 betting-unit on each.

Ø I also make a $5 bet on the Hard-4 and Hard-10 that I “work on the Come-out”.

Ø In some jurisdictions, the Hardways are automatically “on” during the C-O, while in other places they are “off” unless called (and marked with a lammer) as “on”, so you'll want to make sure that your bets are 'on' when you want them to be.

Ø The S-6 set contains both an on-axis H-4 and H-10. As a Darksider, I want to avoid the C-O 7 so I set two of the Straight-Sixes primary-faces on the H-4 and H-10, while the other two faces are the two aces (2), and the two sixes (12).

Ø Obviously if I was using this set as a Rightside shooter, I’d be transposing those Hardways into intentional 5/2 and 2/5 7’s and looking for dedicated C-O PL-winners as well as the Horn/World hits. That not being the case with a DP wager on the line; I make the most of it by collecting from the high-ratio of H-4 and H-10 primary-faced hits that this set produces.

Ø You could just as easily modify this approach with a more conservative approach by using a $5 DP-bet, a $5 World-bet, and $1 each on the Hard-4 and Hard-10...or you could step up to a starting base bet, as I often do, to $50 on the Don't Pass...with corresponding $50 starting-value World-bets.

Ø If my Darkside C-O outcome is a double-pitch 7...then my World-bet stays at its initial value, and I replace my DP wager along with the two HW-bets on the 4 and 10.

Let me add another side-note on the element of intentionally using a 7-dominant set knowing full well the S-6 has four on-axis 7-losers on it.

Ø If a 7 rolls on the C-O, the World-bet is self-sustaining in that it’s a “push” (no gain and no loss), but your DP flat-bet has to be replaced.

Ø I balance that off with the single appearance of the 2 and 12, along with the double appearance of the 3 and 11.

Ø With the high-ratio payouts on each of those Horn-numbers, the sting of having to replace your DP bet if a 7 or 11 shows up, is offset with the quinella-type double payoff if a 2 or 3 shows up.

In addition to that, the appearance of a $5 Hard-4 or Hard-10 not only pays off quite nicely, it concurrently sets a (relatively) tough-to-repeat PL-Point.

Though it’s not a perfect-world scenario, I’ve found that the S-6 still generates net-profit…and does so in spades when the dice end up on one of their primary-faces, and especially if I bring in back-to-back-to-back Horn-number repeaters.

So let’s continue our look at how I book a progression when I get repeating Horn-outcomes.

Ø If the first outcome is an 11...I keep the World-bet at its initial level and I replace my DP-wager. That means that my first hit on an 11 generates a net-profit of $30.

Ø If the outcome is a 3...I double the World-bet to $50, and maintain the same initial $25 bet for my DP-wager. That means that a 3 (along with the DP even-money payment) generates a net-profit (after the World-bet is pressed) of $55.

Ø If the outcome is a 2 or 12...I once again double the World-bet to $50, but still keep the same initial bet for the DP-line. That means that a 2 generates a net-profit (after the World-bet is pressed) of $130, while a 12 generates a net-profit (after the World-bet is pressed) of $105.

On the very next C-O decision...

Ø If the outcome is a 7...I keep the same bet for both the World and the DP. If the World is at $50, then it stays at $50, but I almost always keep my DP base-bet at $25 no matter how large the World-bet grows. Again, this acts to minimize the impact of an on-axis C-O DP 7-loser. I concurrently replace the two $5 wagers on the working Hard-4 and Hard-10 once again if the Come-Out 7 rolls.

Ø Though this may look like a very costly way to get the profit from those six possible on-axis Horn appearances, a couple of years of closely tracked in-casino play validates the net-profitability (some would even say, the OUTSTANDING net-profitability) of this betting-method.

However, let me say right here and now that you have to do your own homework to find out what betting-approach and set-selection works best for YOU. Obviously everyone’s mileage may vary.

Ø Please DO NOT use ANY of my methods without first validating them while using YOUR dice-rolling performances and factoring in your own bankroll and bet-making comfort levels. It is your money and your responsibility to determine whether or not ANY betting-method is right for you, your bankroll and your dice-throwing skills. I urge you to use the utmost caution when you are trying any new method or betting-approach out for the first time.

Ø If on the second Come-Out roll the outcome is an 11...I replace the DP and increase the World-bet by one $25 unit.

Ø If the outcome is a 3...I increase my current World-bet by two more base-units (of $25 each for a current total of $100 on the World), but I still keep the same initial $25 bet on the DP.

Ø If the outcome is a 2 or 12...I increase my current World-bet by three base-units (a $75 increase).

On any subsequent Horn-payers, I add one additional unit to the previous scale.

Now...

Ø I press the World with a further two-unit ($50) increase if the 11 rolls.

Ø I press the World with a further three-unit ($75) increase if the 3 rolls.

Ø I press the World with a further four-unit ($100) increase if the 2 or 12 rolls.

As you can see the required replacement of a lost DP line-bet has less and less significance as your World-action increases. If I'm fortunate enough to get another Horn-hit, I do the same "add one unit to the previous scale" thing, as in…

Ø I press the World with a further three-unit increase if the 11 rolls.

Ø I press the World with a further four-unit increase if the 3 rolls.

Ø I press the World with a further five-unit increase if the 2 or 12 rolls.

I haven't gotten all of this press-the-World action past the next progression more than three or four dozen times, but the net revenue-generation has been quite amazing WITHOUT causing any undue pit attention.

Yes, in high loss-tolerance houses, the pit does notice when the Horn is repeating more than four or five times in a row, especially if more than a couple of players are on (or there are big stakes on it), but it hasn’t resulted in more than a passing interest to make sure that the stickman calls out the correct Prop-payments to the base dealer.

More importantly though, it seems that when a Darksider builds up his C-O action to these kinds of levels; there is much LESS pit-concern than if a Rightside-shooter is doing the exact same thing.

In any event, the next progression (if another Horn repeats again), looks like this:

Ø I press the World with a further four-unit increase if the 11 rolls.

Ø I press the World with a further five-unit increase if the 3 rolls.

Ø I press the World with a further six-unit increase if the 2 or 12 rolls.

At this point, your World-bet can reach the $500 mark (using $25 base-units) if you’ve had the C-O results that see you using the maximum unit-increase on each one of those steps (such as if the 2 or 12 has been rolling), and this is also the point where you will very likely reach the maximum allowable prop-bet payout at many casinos.

Since some houses restrict the maximum Prop-bet to a level that would see the maximum allowable payout to be made (as set by casino policy), you’re likely not going to be allowed to raise your World-action much beyond this point.

A Final Reminder

Obviously we should always be trying to shoot for the bets where we have the highest edge over the house (and that usually does not include high-ratio payout prop-bets), and that remains true even for Darkside-shooting; however in situations where you have a validated strong advantage on those same props; some Come-Out action can offer a very compelling jumpstart to any hand.

As always,

Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.

The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2007

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on July 14, 2007 3:33 AM.

The previous post in this blog was My Not-So-Random Thought for April 10th, 2007.

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