If You Need a 20-Roll Hand to Make Money; Then Never Blame Your Losses on PSO’s
Have you ever read a string of trip reports where a group of guys will lament the fact that their shared session, though peppered liberally with a bunch of 12 to 15-roll hands, and a few Point-then-Seven-Outs, “Never really got things going because nobody could muster a decent 20-roll hand to put everyone into a profit position".
Well let me let you in on a little secret:
If you need a 20-roll hand to “get you over the hump”; then your sessions will almost always show a net-loss.
More over, your losses will almost always outpace your wins; but even when they don’t, your profit will almost never be enough to offset your previous losses.
Oh sure, you’ll REMEMBER all those winning sessions like they are the names of your grandchildren, and you’ll be able to instantly recall many of the facts during its countless retelling when you gather with friends; but again the truth is:
If you need a 20-roll hand to make money; then your losses will almost always outstrip your wins. No matter how good you get at this dice-influencing thing that we do, you are always going to throw an occasional PSO (Point-then-7-Out). However, if you scratch just a bit below the surface; you’ll find that PSO’s ARE NOT the reason you need 20-roll hands to make a profit.
The reason for those losses can almost always be traced back to THE WAY you are currently structuring your bets. If your wagers are set up in such a way as to require multiple presses before they show a net-sessional profit; then you are going to be disappointed way more often than you’ll be elated.
Even though talented dice-influencers throw quite a few more 20-roll hands that we expect from random-rollers (to the tune of 1.76 times more frequently for an SRR-7 shooter, and 2.66 times more frequently for an SRR-8 shooters, and 3.65 times more frequently for an SRR-9 shooter); the fact is that 20-roll hands while seeming to be quite common, are not all that frequent when you put it into perspective of the average number of rolls that occur between each incidence of 20-roll hands.
…and if you are counting on random-rollers to save the day for you; then do yourself a favor…
Rip up your money into tiny little pieces and mail it into the casino.
That way, you’ll save the gas money. Likewise, if you try to rely on random-rollers to bail out your own off-day or off-session shooting; then it’s like putting your airline meal directly into the air-sickness bag.. You are saving the hassle of going through a middle-man and the trouble of actually eating the meal. A random-roller can sometimes serendipitously save your session; but most times it’s the major cause of a net-loss in the first place and the chief reason why you need all those bloody 20-roll hands to generate a net-profit.
Face it, you’re a little too old to believe in fairy tales, and you’re also a little too old to believe that you can turn a random-rollers neg-ex rolls into a reliable steady pos-ex payer OFTEN ENOUGH to make any money at it.
The other reason that you need 20-roll hands is because your current betting is geared towards the long-hand end of the duration spectrum. Again though, even in the hands of a talented shooter or a small group of talented shooters; those 20-roll hands don’t occur frequently enough to show an OVERALL net-profit.
Don’t delude yourself into thinking that you are betting in an advantageous way, or that this even comes close to realizing more than a small portion of the potential of your currently influenced tosses…it does not.
Instead, you have a situation where failure is almost guaranteed.
Oh sure, there will be times when you or other talented shooters DO string together a number of 20-roll hands in the same session; and those sessions will join the others that bear retelling when you gather over coffee or beer; but the reason they are so vividly recallable is because of their rareness of occurrence. I’m not saying that they don’t occur or that they don’t occur quite frequently; rather I’m saying that they don’t occur often enough to bail your ass out of all the other losses you incur WAITING for those 20-roll hands to happen.
So go ahead and enjoy the casino experience, and go ahead and enjoy the comps that go along with those losses; but don’t delude yourself into thinking that you are even coming CLOSE to taking proper advantage of the influenced rolls that you throw.
If you need a 20-roll hand to make money; then you automatically give up all rights to blame your losses on PSO’s; because it’s the way you bet on EVERYTHING ELSE other than Point-then-7-Outs, that doesn’t take proper advantage of your current skill.
If you DO throw more 20-roll hands than PSO’s; then fine bet it up, but if you don’t; then don’t BET like you do!
Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2007