I seriously think that some of the best dice-influencers on this planet need to go into rehab.
They are so addicted and strung out on random-roller betting; that even their own incredible shooting-skills aren’t enough to overcome the cost of being a random-betting junkie.
One of the biggest disconnects between dice-influencing players and the skill-set that they possess; is the amount of money that they don't make.
Given a similar edge in nearly any other casino game, countless numbers of pro's should descend upon advantage-play craps like dice-degenerates used to gather at the 25-cent bird-games. The problem of course is that dice-influencing is a physical skill that has to be coupled with iron-willed mental discipline as well as matched-to-skill betting-methods.
That being the case, each player’s individual skill is variable and not nearly as predictable as a high plus-count in a deep-penetration, wide bet-spread, single-deck 21 game.
Because of that variability and the fact that most players initially approach craps as gamblers first, and only subsequently become advantage-players after the fact; acts to conspire against some of the most skillful shooters in our dice-influencing community.
That is, it's easier to REMAIN a gambler (or at least retain that gambler mindset) than it is to make the difficult transition into becoming a disciplined advantage-player...regardless of the fact that their dice-shooting itself indicates that they should be knocking the casinos ass to the ground nearly every time they pick up the dice.
I've witnessed this first hand over the last three or four weeks.
On one hand, I couldn't believe how incredibly skilled some of these shooters were at influencing the dice. One or two of them were definitely of peer quality, and the rest showed a degree of promise that was truly inspiring.
On the other hand, I also couldn't believe how incredibly disconnected their betting-skill was disengaged from their actual shooting-skill. That became even more obvious when it came to how much and how frequently they bet on random-rollers.
For that reason, I still stand by my opinion that most skilled players severely UNDERBET their own skill by a rank of several multiples...and concurrently OVERBET random-rollers (and other unqualified D-I shooters) by just as much or even more of a disproportionate margin.
The greater the disconnect between the advantage-skill that you have and the NON-advantaged bets that you make; the more difficult it is to show any level of sustainable profit.
The number of exceedingly skilled dice-shooters who are still in that frustrating break-even stage of profit-production is absolutely astounding...and obviously still quite disappointing to witness first-hand, even though I should be used to seeing it by now.
If a modestly-skilled player reduced his random-betting by as little as 25% to 33% and instead wagered that same amount on bets where he has a substantiated and validated edge; then he'd likely garner the profit breakthroughs and revenue consistency that has been eluding him for so long.
The message and the methods and the tools for determining your edge over the casino are out there, but the adoption-rate is still exceedingly low.
Take a Look Around
Look at all of the players who try to follow the trend and continuously attempt to catch lightning in a bottle...then observe how much (or how little) they wager on their own advantaged hands.
Chances are you will see a player whose significant D-I skills are steadily countered and offset by his betting-skills. In other words, his D-I skills deserve multiple black-chip action, but his random-bets keep his overall gaming-budget and loss-tolerance firmly entrenched in red-chip territory.
Sure there are some exceptions, but for the most part I think you'll find quite a bit of truth in that...and it's NOT by coincidence.
Over the years I've taken a bit of heat by talking about the "required maturity" that is part of the overall winning process (that process is discussed at length in my four-part Discipline, Character & Consistency series). Unfortunately those who had taken the greatest exception and offense from that idea still hadn't figured out why maturity and discipline was so important before they finally had to give up this game for good.
If you are more of a "GAMBLER" in heart rather than an "ADVANTAGE-PLAYER" in deed and action; then there is very little likelihood that you will EVER turn a consistent profit from this game. Oh sure, you'll have the occasional headline-making huge win which will give you just enough rationalized-reinforcement to keep you doing the same old stuff that keeps your overall revenue on the minus side of the ledger; however your trips to the positive side of the profit-ledger will be very short and only fleetingly gratifying.
However, it DOES NOT HAVE TO BE THAT WAY!
Most players in our D-I community have the skill-set to win CONSISTENTLY even when their on-axis performance barely gets beyond random. However doing so requires the maturity to bet that advantage in an extremely careful way. Now there are those out there whose sole role on this board is to distract your attention from winning by bogging down any betting-geared-to-skill discussions with inane assertions that rarely rise above a fool who tilts at windmills that he thinks are dragons.
However, the message should not be lost.
Your bets have to match your current skill-set if you want to bridge the gap between your D-I skills and the advantage-play money those skills should be producing.
It's that easy...and it's that hard.
It takes maturity and discipline and commitment and dedication.
You have to decide whether you want to WIN or you just want to gamble. You have to choose one or the other, because YOU CAN'T DO BOTH!
Is the dice-influencing community losing its citizens?
Of course it is, and we will continue to eventually lose each and every player that ignores that message.
The better able you are at weaning yourself off of random-roller betting, and the more you can detoxify your “gamblers mindset” and steer it towards positive-expectation advantage-play dice-influencing; the more you’ll be able to derive steady profit from this game.
If you think losing at gambling is fun and entertaining, just wait until you see how much fun making a steady and predictable profit from your dice-influencing advantage-play can be.
Skimming The Cream
Advantage-play is all about skimming off the cream that your dice-influencing edge produces.
As advantage players, our profit is derived from the small difference between the negative-edge that the house has over random-rollers and the small positive-edge that we have over the house.
That is where our advantage is sourced from, and that is where the “cream” of our profit is found.
As dice-influencers who use linked-to-skill betting, our job is to skim that cream and keep it for ourselves.
If we produce a shooting advantage but we don’t collect it (by way of properly wagering on it); then we leave it to the casino to keep…thereby surrendering what is validly ours.
What Have You Done for Me Lately?
You should ask every one of your bets what they have done for you lately, to determine either how much profit they are CONTRIBUTING for your profit-making efforts...or how much of your validated pos-ex edge they are BURNING.
Let’s say that you have a validated advantage over the Inside-Numbers (which you do bet on and make a reasonable profit from); but you are also hooked on making rarely-paying Hop and Prop bets.
If those Hops and Props don’t carry their own weight by producing a net-profit off of the action that you wager on them; then those bets and any other under-performers or non-performers, are skimming some, most, or ALL of your profit.
If the burn-rate of your non-paying bets is bigger than the contribution-rate of your paying bets; then you will almost always lose more than you win despite your edge over the house.
Even an occasional couple-of-times-per-hand non-paying Hop or Prop-bet will often turn what could have been a fairly profitable session into a losing one.
Sure you can think back to the time when a parlayed back-to-back-to-back Hopping 4/5 Nine supercharged your session, or the time when you threw twelve Hard-4’s in the same hand; but if you look at the overall effect of those Hops and Props, you either have to be sure that they are carrying their own weight…or that your edge on all of the other bets you make is so large, so compelling, and so strong; that you can make Hops and Props until the cows come home and still emerge with a profit.
Do yourself a favor and question each and every one of your bets to determine what they have done for you lately, and then detoxify yourself from as many neg-ex outcomes as you can.
Your pos-ex advantage is the only place where consistent profit can come from in this game; and frankly that makes it the best place to wager your money.
Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2007