At the Table with the Mad Professor

Evolving Skill Means Evolving Betting Opportunities

2008-08-06T04:35:14Z

As your skill evolves your betting-methods have to evolve right along with them, or any shooting improvements will not increase things in the profit-department as much as they should.

The betting-methods that worked perfectly for you three or six months ago may not even pertain to what you are throwing now.

For your profit to keep pace with your evolving skills, you have to let your past experience as well as your current skill-level guide you. That means you have to use what you know from what worked in the past, but not let ancient and currently-irrelevant history determine how you are betting now.

The recency of your toss-stats are what is important as long as your current set of tracked rolls is large enough to be testably significant. Than means that a hundred or so tosses mean almost nothing...but several hundred start to take on significant meaning and actionability.

As your Precision-Shooting evolves, you have to constantly monitor whether your current betting-methods are squeezing maximum profit out of your present skills, or if they are strangling and diluting your revenue and diminishing your earnings-consistency based on how you influenced the dice a couple of months ago.

The Long Road Out of Eden

Your CURRENT, highest-recurring Signature Numbers should be the driving force behind your bets, and that includes giving them PRIORITY over all other bets except your PL-Odds money.

In simple terms:

INVEST YOUR MONEY WHERE IT WILL HAVE THE MOST CONSISTENLY PROFITABLE RESULTS. T

So I’ll tell you again:

Your CURRENT Signature Numbers should be the DRIVING FORCE behind your bets, and that includes giving them PRIORITY over all other bets EXCEPT your PL-Odds money.

If skilled shooters took all the money that they normally bet on any Props, Hops and low-edge or neg-ex bets and instead piled it on their most dominant box-number; the results would astound them to the point where they might come to realize how powerful their current D-I skill is IF they bet on it properly.

If Your Shooting Starts “Giving”…

…You have to adjust your bets to do the best “TAKING"

When changes occur, you first have to recognize them; then you have to adjust your betting-methods to more closely match your currently-flowing results.

As your skill improves, your betting-methods have to keep pace with them.

If you see one or two numbers continually repeating one after the other after the other; then that is where your troops (your money) may have to be re-deployed to…but it is important to note that we are only talking about box-numbers here (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10), and NOT about any of the other (2, 3, 11, or 12) one-roll numbers.

In some sessions, a new dominant outcome may signal the emergence of a newer or higher-priority Signature Number. Now that doesn’t mean that you should start chasing numbers as soon as they show up; rather you will often see a shift from what USED TO BE your most-dominant set of outcomes merge into what is NOW a somewhat different set of prevailing results.
You have to be a keen, but not over-anxious observer of what your current skill is offering up in terms of exploitable opportunities.

So for example, if the third near-consecutive outcome with the same result doesn't convince you to bet on it, then the fourth one definitely should. Five or six back-to-back-to-back same-number outcomes are what fledgling dice-influencers fantasize about and what accomplished precision-shooters strive for during each hand, but it always doesn’t happen. You simply have to learn when to pull the trigger, and to have a sufficient bankroll so that you have not run out of bullets when a prime target-of-opportunity shows its head.

What you are looking for is to bet on your current right-here/right-now skill-set. That doesn’t mean what number just rolled; instead it means that you have to look at your overall results and determine which numbers are occurring most frequently…and then wager on them with the majority of your 7-exposure betting-weight.

You have to continually monitor your progress to determine if the ranking and strength of each Signature Number is stable, or whether one of them is racing for and taking over the lead in its dominance. This is the time to make adjustments to your bets.

If these on-going adjustments look like a continual juggling act where you modify, revise, amend and fine-tune where your money is deployed, you are correct. You have to have the insight and awareness of your constantly changing skills to reflect the places where the preponderant weight of your money should be positioned.

If your shooting starts “Giving”; then you have to adjust your bets to do the “TAKING”.

A Short Review

By focusing on our Signature Numbers, we reduce our risk and increase our profit. In addition:

-Early regression of our bets reduces bankroll depression.

-Relaxed focus allows you to concentrate on continued success, not continued STRESS.

-Signature Numbers + Regression + Conservative Pressing = Consistent Profit

-Don’t let superstition limit your wins.

-Mental-limits are far more restrictive than physical-limits.

-Sufficient bankroll gives your skills a fair chance.

-As your skill evolves; your betting-methods have to evolve along with them.

-Your current Signature Numbers have to be the driving force behind your bets.

-Invest your money where it will have the most consistently profitable results.

-If your shooting starts “Giving”; then you have to adjust your bets to do the “TAKING”.

In Part Two, we’ll look at some specific betting methods that give a functional mix between maximal profit (betting on just one or two numbers) while still offering a reasonable amount of flexibility (by encompassing a greater choice of box-numbers covered). Yes, it’s my long-awaited “MP’s Bet-Weighting” article.

Until then,

Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.

The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2007- 2008

Creating More Shooting Opportunities Part Five

2007-10-14T07:25:26Z

Creating More Shooting Opportunities
Part Five

]]> As a dice-influencer, the game only goes into positive-expectation mode when the dice are in your hands or in the hands of another skilled shooter. The game goes right back into negative-expectation mode as soon as the dice are back in the hands of random-rollers.

If you can influence the dice, even if it is in the most modest of ways; then it makes sense to increase the number of times you get to shoot the dice. That means coming up with ways for you to create more shooting opportunities.

Over the years I’ve shared some of the most obvious methods you can use, as well as some of my more furtive and secretive techniques that will put the dice into your hands more often.

With the growing number of new members among our D-I citizenship; a quick review of some of the things that we’ve already covered is in order:

Play During “Off” Hours

Prime time for most casinos is from 7 pm to 2 am. The range of those hours may vary somewhat from city to city, and casino to casino. However, we can generally agree that the tables are busiest at night, and emptiest in the very early morning from 5 am to 10 am. The other hours connecting those empty and busy periods are somewhere between the two extremes.

Play During “Off” Days

Tuesday and Wednesday are traditionally the lightest days for in-house traffic, while Friday, Saturday and Sunday are customarily the busiest.

During busy convention periods, major sporting events, and of course long weekends and holidays you can expect the biggest crowds. However, the two days BEFORE a long weekend, and the day AFTER a long weekend is traditionally the LIGHTEST.

Play during “Off Season” or “Off Weather”

That one should be self-explanatory, but suffice it to say that if you go when everyone else is going; then don’t expect your pick of table-position.

Avoid the crowds especially during promotional periods when they are giving away cars, boats, barbeques and Swiffer WetJets, as well as during any of the area’s festivals, and instead play when most other people don’t even want to venture out.

“If You Liked That, Then Let Me Shoot Again”

If your dice-influencing skills are good enough; then those nine little words will return the dice to you often enough.

Let me paint a little scenario for you:

~Let’s say that your average casino-day totals four sessions of one-hour each, and that you get to throw the dice twice during each one-hour session.

~We’ll estimate that in four hours of play, you’ll get to shoot the dice at total of eight times, and out of those eight shooting opportunities, you manage to have two excellent hands in the range of 20 to 40 rolls.

~At the end of an excellent hand like that, you’ll often see players high-fiving each other, and the entire crew applauding your success.

Now in that scenario, how often does someone suggest passing the dice right back to you so that you can shoot again?

Though the suggestion probably happens quite often, the ratio of someone SUGGESTING it, and the actual number of times when everyone AGREES to do it is usually a 50/50 proposition, at best.

You would be surprised at how you can increase your chances of everyone passing the dice right back to you if you speak up and say something along the lines of, ““If You Liked That, Then Let Me Shoot Again”.

Seek Out Turbo-Dice

Turbo-Dice is not a new video game that rivals Halo3; rather it is a term used to describe gaming-houses that move the dice as quickly as possible, thereby generating as many rolls per hour as achievable.

Casino-operators have long known that more decisions/hour translates into a higher house-win/hour.

Now obviously you have to have both your betting-regimen and your dice-setting skills down pat when you play in a store like that, otherwise you may have the stickman or the boxman hurrying you along as you fumble with the dice. However, the sooner the dice are out from the control of a random-roller and the quicker they come back to your power of influence; the more potential money you can make.

Change of Shift

Find out when the casino normally changes their dealer-shifts, and ask when they usually open additional tables. Traditionally Swing-shift will have the most open tables, while the graveyard-shift will have the least.

One way to take advantage of these shift changes is to find out if they usually open additional tables when they change shifts. That way you can schedule your play for when new table(s) are first opening.

Since you know that very few people like to “open” an empty table, you can usually be the first player to get the dice. Not only that, but you can usually be a solo shooter for a number of hands before other players clue in or drop their social-inhibitions.

Be a Cold Table Warmer

A professional D-I friend of mine jokes with the Pit Bosses that he is their “unpaid shill”, because he’ll happily start up a newly opened table, or resuscitate a “dead” game where the dealers are standing idle.

He loves playing at solo-tables, so he’ll gladly get the game started. Then as soon as four or five new players drift over and he completes his own hand, he’ll seek out the next empty table that requires his “attention”.

If there are no empty tables where he is currently playing; then he’ll check his casino-notes to determine which places will be opening new tables, or which casinos should be the emptiest at that particular hour of the day.

I’ve often seen where a TGS or Pit Boss will motion him over to get a game started. They too understand the reluctance of most players to step up to an empty table, so they tolerate his relatively modest, but consistent winnings.

Trade Excitement for Profit

Crowded tables may be exciting, but they diminish and inhibit your profit opportunities. Remember that open but empty tables are the curse of random-rollers but the blessing of Precision-Shooters.

If you are still stuck in the superstitious, “Oooooh, that table is trending cold for the random-roller, so I better not shoot on it” mode; then you are passing up all kinds of great money-making shooting opportunities. Leave the voodoo at home with the high-priestess, and come on into the 21st century.

Higher Minimum-Bet = Lower Table Population

If each of four craps tables in a dice pit have different minimum-bets; then generally the cheapest one will be the most crowded, while the more expensive one will usually be the least crowded.
While there is no guarantee that the more expensive tables will always be less populated; a price difference usually means a population difference.

When you are playing on “known” tables where you have shot SUCCESSFULLY before and where all the other cheaper tables are crowded, then the more expensive table may be a great choice, and not just a high-priced alternative.

One caution that I would add is that if the higher table-minimum is outside of your current comfort-level, and it will likely intensify your shooting-stress and anxiety; in which case I would recommend against making this unique move.

Higher Table-Minimums Often Lure Better Dice-Influencers

Although most players who frequent higher-denomination tables are not necessarily better shooters; in some gaming-jurisdictions where there are a number of skilled dice-influencers, that is often the case.

There are many, many excellent dice-influencers in the world; and like it or not, there is a natural selection process that takes place which separates the skilled dice-influencers from the ones who haven’t yet gotten their entire skill-set in order.

That natural selection process is helped along by the fact that skilled players will eventually seek out higher-denomination tables for the majority of their action.

As their bankrolls grow, they come to the same realization that I have.

That realization is that the more frequently they get the dice in their hands during a given session; the better their chances of walking away with a substantial profit.

Though I still like playing at some of the neutral-rolling and unfortunately, semi-crowded cheap tables; I often find myself immediately seeking another shooting opportunity as soon as I finish my hand, especially if I know it’s going to take quite a while for the dice to come back to me.

Frequently, I find that the next shooting opportunity is immediately available at a higher-denomination table right beside the low-buck one I just finished throwing at...and a growing number of skilled shooters are coming to the same conclusion.

Buying Shooting Opportunities

There are a number of highly accomplished players out there whom specifically ask the Pit Boss to RAISE the table-minimum simply to keep more of the low-rollers OFF of the table, and to ensure that the dice cycle around to their position quicker.

They always seek out the higher minimum-bet tables in any event, because they know that those layouts are usually less crowded. However, when all of the tables are busy, it doesn’t require a whole lot of arm-twisting to encourage the Pit Boss to raise the cost-of-play at any one particular table.

If they have a favorite table, they will specify which one they want the higher-minimum to be established at. Sometimes this can be a simple increase from the normal $5 or $10-minimum bumped up to a $15 or $25 level.

Of course, the higher the standard-bet in a particular casino is; then the higher it will have to be raised to gain more and more exclusivity. At some casinos, kicking it up a notch or two will mean bumping it up to the $25, $50 or $100 level.

Even at that higher benchmark, you may not get the solo-exclusivity that you were hoping for, but at least you’ll have to endure far fewer random-rollers than you would at the $5, $10, or $15 tables.

Call Ahead Recon

Another way to maximize the number of times that you get to shoot the dice, is to call ahead to your target-casino and ask for the craps pit (or the “dice pit” if you are on the East Coast) and ask the Pit Clerk:

 How many tables are open and what are the current bet-minimums at each table?

 How crowded are the tables right now, and and when will new tables will be opening?

Armed with that information, you can tailor your playing plans to more closely correspond with the ebb and flow of staffing levels and table-minimum adjustments that are made throughout the entire casino-day.

Call Ahead and Reserve

Call to reserve your spot or even to have them raise the table-limit to your liking. That way they can give proper notice to the players that are already at the table that the price of fun is going up. By the time you get there, the new bet-minimum should be just coming into effect and fresh spots should be opening up.

Be the First Shooter at Multiple Tables

A moment ago, I mentioned the idea of adapting your schedule to be at the tables just a few minutes before a dealer shift-change when more tables will open.

Let’s take that one step further:

 As a courtesy, especially if the crew knows you as a good tipper; they’ll often let you shoot first no matter where you are positioned at the table.

 If they open several tables at the same time, you could take a look at how quickly each table-crew is getting ready (as they count down the cheque-bank and unwrap fresh dice, etc), and choose the table that will be ready first.

 Then, after you’ve thrown your first hand at the newly opened layout, you could switch over to the one that is now just about ready to open (especially if the table you are at has filled up because of pent-up player demand).

 Again, if you are the first to arrive at the second table or you pre-reserve a spot at it with one of your extra Players Cards (by asking the crew to hold your spot, and saying that you’ll be back as soon as they’re ready to go); then they’ll likely let you be the first shooter at that table as well.

At some casinos where they open three or four new tables at the same time, you can use this method in order to shoot four straight hands in a row on four different layouts.

If your shooting is dialed-in, and you keep your wits about you; there is absolutely no reason why you can’t make money off of each of your hands, while concurrently avoiding an equal number of random-roller hands.

For a skilled player that still struggles with random-roller discipline, you can look at it in another way:

The more often that you shoot, the less time you’ll spend frittering away money on random-rollers. The money you save by avoiding random-rollers can be more intelligently redeployed on wagers where you have a validated edge over the casino; and that is when the dice are in YOUR hands.

Ask and Ye Shall Receive…Lowering Your Cost of Doing Business

If there aren’t any players at a high-denomination table whose bet-minimum you yourself would be uncomfortable in betting at, and the crew has been standing dead (idle) for some time since anyone played on it; then simply ask the Pit Boss if he will lower the bet-minimum.

If he agrees, you will probably be able to get in one or two complete hands before fellow players catch on to the fact that the former expensive table is now more reasonably priced.
In the meantime, get your good rolls in, and tell the stickman not to call out the “Pass-Line winners” too loudly. That helps to keep the mass-migration from occurring too quickly.

Let’s take that idea one step further…

Many times if you’re on good terms with the crew and the Pit-miesters, they’ll let you play at a lower-than-posted rate at the more expensive table until at least one or more players joins in; then you’ll either have to bet at the “posted” minimum, or move back the cheaper and more crowded layout.

 Since few mid-roller random-shooters like to play solo, there’s a likelihood that your action will bring more higher-limit (but reluctant-to-play-at-an-empty-table) players to the layout…and in doing so, you’ve done the Pit Boss a favor.

 By letting you play at a lower-than-posted bet-level until another player shows up, the Pit Boss has also done you a favor.

Doing stuff like this also tends to raise your stock-value as far as your worth to the casino (in the eyes of the Pit-guys that are filling out your Rating Card) is concerned. Besides, the worse they can say to your request about lowering the price of an empty table, or letting you play at it for a lesser amount until another player shows up…is “no”.

Ask For a HIGHER Limit Table…Part Three

I know we just got finished talking about asking for a lower limit, but I want to return to the whole subject of playing at higher-denomination tables, and specifically about intentionally getting the Pit Manager to raise the table-minimum of a cheap table even if you are the only player on it.

Asking for a higher table-minimum when you’ve got a cheap table all to yourself may sound counter-intuitive, but if you find a nice empty cheap table, you’ll often see players come out of the woodwork in droves as soon as you start to play. They may not have been around a moment ago; but as soon as you pick up the dice, they all swarm in like locusts.

If you find yourself on a table that is similarly-priced to all the other ones that are open, and you know from your own experience that most players will stay away if it was higher-priced; then it often makes sense to have the bet-minimum raised to the highest-limit that you yourself are comfortable with.
This method acts to limit the amount of player-migration from nearby tables.

The idea is to afford yourself the most frequent dice-throwing chances WITHOUT raising the bet-minimum past your own comfort-level (or your bankroll-affordability level).

It is CRITICALLY IMPORTANT that you remember that this whole more-shooting-opportunities concept is based on your validated Precision-Shooting advantage.

If your shooting shows a verified and consistent advantage, and your betting is properly matched to fully exploit that advantage; then it just makes good economic sense to get the dice in your paws as often as reasonably possible.

Eyes Open, Ears Tuned

In my seven-part Steaks, Trends and Opportunities series, we discussed various ways to “tune in” to what is happening at other nearby craps tables.

By doing that, you can anticipate when some tables will start to clear out due to their ‘coldness’ and you can then position yourself to get in your favorite shooting-spot as the table loses more and more players.

Keep your eyes open and your ears tuned to situations where you can put yourself into a position where you’ll be able to put your advantage-shooting to work for you.

Playing at More Than One Table at a Time

Scope out other tables that are emptying out because of cold trends. If even the liars are complaining and everyone is drifting away; then this is an ideal opportunity for you to step up to that table.

Park a chip in the rail at your current table to hold your spot (or use one of those plastic half-pipe chip-covers that more and more casinos are using these days), while you go over to that de-populated one.

As a side-note, it’s considered “impolite, but not illegal” to be playing at more than one table at a time. If you are known by the crew and the Pit-critters as a good-tipping player; then it usually buys you additional latitude as far as casino-management allowing you to do this sort of thing.

A reserved spot at two different tables where you can shuttle back and forth between them, means having twice as many shooting opportunities to work your advantage-play magic in the same amount of time.

In Part Six of this series I'll share some rather unusual ways that create even more shooting opportunities for your positive-expectation shooting.

In the meantime,

Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.

The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2007

Detoxifying Yourself From Random-Rollers

2007-10-14T07:15:08Z

I seriously think that some of the best dice-influencers on this planet need to go into rehab.

]]> They are so addicted and strung out on random-roller betting; that even their own incredible shooting-skills aren’t enough to overcome the cost of being a random-betting junkie.

One of the biggest disconnects between dice-influencing players and the skill-set that they possess; is the amount of money that they don't make.

Given a similar edge in nearly any other casino game, countless numbers of pro's should descend upon advantage-play craps like dice-degenerates used to gather at the 25-cent bird-games. The problem of course is that dice-influencing is a physical skill that has to be coupled with iron-willed mental discipline as well as matched-to-skill betting-methods.

That being the case, each player’s individual skill is variable and not nearly as predictable as a high plus-count in a deep-penetration, wide bet-spread, single-deck 21 game.

Because of that variability and the fact that most players initially approach craps as gamblers first, and only subsequently become advantage-players after the fact; acts to conspire against some of the most skillful shooters in our dice-influencing community.

That is, it's easier to REMAIN a gambler (or at least retain that gambler mindset) than it is to make the difficult transition into becoming a disciplined advantage-player...regardless of the fact that their dice-shooting itself indicates that they should be knocking the casinos ass to the ground nearly every time they pick up the dice.

I've witnessed this first hand over the last three or four weeks.

On one hand, I couldn't believe how incredibly skilled some of these shooters were at influencing the dice. One or two of them were definitely of peer quality, and the rest showed a degree of promise that was truly inspiring.

On the other hand, I also couldn't believe how incredibly disconnected their betting-skill was disengaged from their actual shooting-skill. That became even more obvious when it came to how much and how frequently they bet on random-rollers.

For that reason, I still stand by my opinion that most skilled players severely UNDERBET their own skill by a rank of several multiples...and concurrently OVERBET random-rollers (and other unqualified D-I shooters) by just as much or even more of a disproportionate margin.

The greater the disconnect between the advantage-skill that you have and the NON-advantaged bets that you make; the more difficult it is to show any level of sustainable profit.

The number of exceedingly skilled dice-shooters who are still in that frustrating break-even stage of profit-production is absolutely astounding...and obviously still quite disappointing to witness first-hand, even though I should be used to seeing it by now.

If a modestly-skilled player reduced his random-betting by as little as 25% to 33% and instead wagered that same amount on bets where he has a substantiated and validated edge; then he'd likely garner the profit breakthroughs and revenue consistency that has been eluding him for so long.

The message and the methods and the tools for determining your edge over the casino are out there, but the adoption-rate is still exceedingly low.

Take a Look Around

Look at all of the players who try to follow the trend and continuously attempt to catch lightning in a bottle...then observe how much (or how little) they wager on their own advantaged hands.

Chances are you will see a player whose significant D-I skills are steadily countered and offset by his betting-skills. In other words, his D-I skills deserve multiple black-chip action, but his random-bets keep his overall gaming-budget and loss-tolerance firmly entrenched in red-chip territory.

Sure there are some exceptions, but for the most part I think you'll find quite a bit of truth in that...and it's NOT by coincidence.

Over the years I've taken a bit of heat by talking about the "required maturity" that is part of the overall winning process (that process is discussed at length in my four-part Discipline, Character & Consistency series). Unfortunately those who had taken the greatest exception and offense from that idea still hadn't figured out why maturity and discipline was so important before they finally had to give up this game for good.

If you are more of a "GAMBLER" in heart rather than an "ADVANTAGE-PLAYER" in deed and action; then there is very little likelihood that you will EVER turn a consistent profit from this game. Oh sure, you'll have the occasional headline-making huge win which will give you just enough rationalized-reinforcement to keep you doing the same old stuff that keeps your overall revenue on the minus side of the ledger; however your trips to the positive side of the profit-ledger will be very short and only fleetingly gratifying.

However, it DOES NOT HAVE TO BE THAT WAY!

Most players in our D-I community have the skill-set to win CONSISTENTLY even when their on-axis performance barely gets beyond random. However doing so requires the maturity to bet that advantage in an extremely careful way. Now there are those out there whose sole role on this board is to distract your attention from winning by bogging down any betting-geared-to-skill discussions with inane assertions that rarely rise above a fool who tilts at windmills that he thinks are dragons.

However, the message should not be lost.

Your bets have to match your current skill-set if you want to bridge the gap between your D-I skills and the advantage-play money those skills should be producing.

It's that easy...and it's that hard.

It takes maturity and discipline and commitment and dedication.

You have to decide whether you want to WIN or you just want to gamble. You have to choose one or the other, because YOU CAN'T DO BOTH!

Is the dice-influencing community losing its citizens?

Of course it is, and we will continue to eventually lose each and every player that ignores that message.

The better able you are at weaning yourself off of random-roller betting, and the more you can detoxify your “gamblers mindset” and steer it towards positive-expectation advantage-play dice-influencing; the more you’ll be able to derive steady profit from this game.

If you think losing at gambling is fun and entertaining, just wait until you see how much fun making a steady and predictable profit from your dice-influencing advantage-play can be.

Skimming The Cream

Advantage-play is all about skimming off the cream that your dice-influencing edge produces.

As advantage players, our profit is derived from the small difference between the negative-edge that the house has over random-rollers and the small positive-edge that we have over the house.

That is where our advantage is sourced from, and that is where the “cream” of our profit is found.

As dice-influencers who use linked-to-skill betting, our job is to skim that cream and keep it for ourselves.

If we produce a shooting advantage but we don’t collect it (by way of properly wagering on it); then we leave it to the casino to keep…thereby surrendering what is validly ours.

What Have You Done for Me Lately?

You should ask every one of your bets what they have done for you lately, to determine either how much profit they are CONTRIBUTING for your profit-making efforts...or how much of your validated pos-ex edge they are BURNING.

Let’s say that you have a validated advantage over the Inside-Numbers (which you do bet on and make a reasonable profit from); but you are also hooked on making rarely-paying Hop and Prop bets.

If those Hops and Props don’t carry their own weight by producing a net-profit off of the action that you wager on them; then those bets and any other under-performers or non-performers, are skimming some, most, or ALL of your profit.

If the burn-rate of your non-paying bets is bigger than the contribution-rate of your paying bets; then you will almost always lose more than you win despite your edge over the house.

Even an occasional couple-of-times-per-hand non-paying Hop or Prop-bet will often turn what could have been a fairly profitable session into a losing one.

Sure you can think back to the time when a parlayed back-to-back-to-back Hopping 4/5 Nine supercharged your session, or the time when you threw twelve Hard-4’s in the same hand; but if you look at the overall effect of those Hops and Props, you either have to be sure that they are carrying their own weight…or that your edge on all of the other bets you make is so large, so compelling, and so strong; that you can make Hops and Props until the cows come home and still emerge with a profit.

Do yourself a favor and question each and every one of your bets to determine what they have done for you lately, and then detoxify yourself from as many neg-ex outcomes as you can.

Your pos-ex advantage is the only place where consistent profit can come from in this game; and frankly that makes it the best place to wager your money.

Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.

The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2007

Stick With What Works...and Jettison Everything Else

2007-09-25T21:25:15Z

I ran into an old craps-pro friend at the table yesterday afternoon. We hadn’t seen each other in almost four years even though we both often play at the same gaming-houses on the Northern Circuit (A/C, NY, ON, MI, PQ, and WI); but at different times of the day and night and on different days of the week. craps-pro I should really elaborate and say that he uses craps as one-half of his income-stream, while the other half is made up by his entertainment business. His dice-influencing ‘job’ takes up about two or three days each week, and his play-schedule is very flexible except on weekends when his other job which consumes about two-and-a-half days a week, takes center-stage…literally. I mention all of this because his method of betting is perhaps the purest form of D-I advantage-play that I have ever seen over such an extended, nearly eight-year period of time. When we used to shoot together prior to 2003, he’d bet $50 on the Passline and back his PL-Point with maximum-Odds. He’d then Place-bet the 6 and 8 for $300 each, and set up a $50 Come-bet. Wherever it traveled, he’d back it with max-Odds. If he got more than two Come-bets up on any of the numbers without first hitting a 6 or 8 (which was rare); he’d stop Come-betting until one of his two Place-bets hit; then he’d recommence Come-betting. During a hand, he never pressed his wagers nor increased the flat portion of his PL or Come-bets...ever. When I used to bet on him, he was always good for at least five or six Inside-Numbers hits, and at least one PL-Point repeater, plus an occasional back-to-back Hardway-number hit (although that was something that I was never absolutely sure was net-profitable for me). Even though he’d throw an average of at least one PL-Point repeater, I almost never went on the Passline with him; opting instead soley for that Inside and Hardway action. Though his hands were never exceptionally long, it was the consistency of being able to count on collecting from at least five or six Inside-Numbers hits that made him (to my mind anyway) the closest thing I have ever seen to being a money-making machine…and I mentally kicked myself in the ass for losing contact with him in the first place. Fast-forward to yesterday afternoon’s session with him. He was still betting the exact same way…save and except for the fact that his base PL and Come-bets were now $200, and they were backed as always with maximum-allowable Odds, and his Place-bets on the 6 and 8 were now at the $600 level. When I commented about the fact that he still bet the same way that he did four years ago, he said that he simply stuck with what worked and that he had jettisoned everything else that didn’t work. He mentioned that he had tweaked his base-toss a little bit since the last time I saw him; though I couldn’t see much of a difference other than a slight shift in his finger-placement as well as the way he studiously re-squared the dice just prior to commencing his toss-motion. Other than that, his dice were still flying through the air with Borg-like precision and they were still landing with minimal scatter and only nominal (less than 3 or 4-inches) of backwall-rebound rollout...and the thing that always set him apart from most of the other skilled dice-influencers that I've run into over the years, was the fact that both dice remained virtually equi-distant to each other in relation to their backwall backwall impact point. That is, if the left-die rolled out four-inches from the backwall; then the right-die was not only almost always also four-inches from the backwall; but both dice were never more than the same distance away from each other. To me, that kind of consistency was, well, in a word, it was "bankable". When he saw me back my PL line-bet with full-Odds and then put up a hefty Inside-Number wager on him as well as…but without my traditional Hardways-action on him; he chuckled and said, “I see you haven’t changed much in the way you bet on me either.” I responded by basically repeating what he had said to me only moments before, “I stick with what always has worked and I’ve jettisoned anything else that didn’t. His consistency was still as reliable as it was when we last met. I collected off of an average of six Inside-Number hits, and he was still producing an average of at least one PL-Point repeater per hand. I asked when he had ratcheted his base-bets from a basic $50 to the present-day $200; he said that he had raised it by about $25 per year, although he allowed that his bankroll-growth would justify a much more rapid rate of increase. We ended up shooting together for a total of just over six hours, and in all that time his average hand stayed pretty much true to what I had always come to expect…and had always come to profit from. By adding the PL w/full-Odds dimension to my betting when he had the dice, and by dropping the feast-or-famine Hardways; I noticed that my per-hand profit increased substantially over what I was able to usually win off of him four years ago. I made a little promise to myself right then and there to take a serious look at ALL of my current betting in order to stick with all the stuff that works…and to jettison pretty much anything else that doesn’t. The difference it should make to my net-profit promises to be substantial. As always, Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life. The Mad Professor Copyright © 2007 ]]>

Are Table-Minimum Increases a Casino-Countermeasure or an Advantage-Play Opportunity?

2007-08-01T03:23:22Z

Are Table-Minimum Increases a Casino-Countermeasure or an Advantage-Play Opportunity?

]]> Let me paint a scenario for you:

~You and a couple of fellow dice-influencers have been playing at the same $5 table for a few hours or so.

~Though you haven’t exactly been setting the world on fire; each of you have been able to pepper the session with enough good hands to put all of the players, including the mostly random-roller balance of the table’s population, into a decent profit position.

~The table is full and there are a couple of wanna-be players hovering around waiting for an opening.

~The head pit-dweller walks up to the table with two table-limit placards. As he hands them to the boxman, he announces, “Next shooter $25 minimum…no grand-fathering of the $5 limit…the price of fun just went up for everyone”.

So, is that a casino counter-measure or is it an advantage-play opportunity for the dice-influencers who are already at that table…or is it both…or perhaps even, neither?

Let me paint another scenario for you:

~You walk into a crowded craps pit. The single $5 table is jammed fuller than Pamela Anderson’s bra, and the $10 and $15 tables are jammed fuller than the bank accounts of the plastic surgeons who helped fill Pamela Anderson’s bra. There is a lone $50 table that is standing idle with a crew that looks as bored a convention of Maytag repairmen.

~Your pre-casino practice session showed an inordinate number of on-axis, primary-faced hits, and you’ve got a buy-in (as well as a long-term validated advantage) that clearly justifies playing at the $50 min-bet level….but you’ve never played at this level before and your confidence-level is not quite as reassuring as your verified edge over the house should have you feeling.

The question is… should you play, and if so, will you?

The oft-noted and distracting red-herring corollary question to all of those thoughts are:

Is the higher-limit table a sinister and greedy casino counter-measure, or is it simply a matter of making sure there is enough room at the inn for better-heeled players.

As dice-influencing advantage-players, we shouldn't really even CARE about the answer to that question. Instead, the real question we need to answer is:

Is it an advantage-play opportunity for dice-influencers who are already there, and does it provide a better prospect for skilled shooters to make more money than they could at a randomly-crowded $5, $10, and $15 tables?

Now before you start thinking negatively like, “Yeah, but higher-minimums also mean that I could lose more too”; let’s look at what "advantage-play opportunity" really means.

~In a nutshell, when you play with a known advantage; then every dollar that is wagered on that advantage has an edge over the casino. Though it doesn’t guarantee a win every time you pick up the dice; a validated in-casino edge does mean that your shooting will prevail more times than it fails…and as such, you should bet as much as you can comfortably afford when the dice are in your advantaged hands…and bet as little, if nothing at all, when the dice are in the disadvantaged hands of a neg-ex random-roller.

~When you have an advantage, it is in your best interest to bet in line with what your true advantage is, as well as betting in line with as much as your total gaming bankroll can reasonably afford.

~When you throw a reasonable number of hands that have a positive-expectation over the house; then you can expect to win more on your properly assigned bets than you will lose…and that’s how savvy advantage-play dice-influencers make money.

~Sure, you can make it more complicated if you want to; but in the end it all boils down to betting more when you have an edge, and betting less or nothing at all when you don’t.

A higher-minimum table tends to drive the random-rollers away, and it opens up all kinds of increased shooting opportunities for you.

The question of course then becomes:

Will you put your money where your true advantage is, or do you still want to play the role of the degenerate gambler and continue betting on everyone…while continuing to turn in mostly losing sessions despite your own validated edge over the house?

It’s a good question to ask…but it’s the answer that most talented players tend to avoid like the plague

But let’s get back to the main question:

Are Table-Minimum Increases a Casino-Countermeasure or an Advantage-Play Opportunity?

Well let’s look at the situation with clear eyes and a sober mind.

~A table-limit increase tends to clear players from the table. Many people take it personally when pit-management raises the sperm-count, and even though they could afford to stay; they take a “Stick it up yer arse” attitude by leaving.

That’s fine by me, and it should be fine by you.

Less random-rollers means LESS neg-ex exposure for your disadvantaged bets, and MORE of a winning prospect for your advantaged ones.

~A table-limit increase also affords more frequent shooting opportunities for those players who are left behind. For a small group of similarly-skilled dice-influencers, that feature alone is worth anywhere from double to quintuple the profit-opportunity than a table filled with mostly random-rollers is.

~By having less random-rollers to contend with, combined with the increased prospect of one or more skilled shooters catching a good to great hand; it is surprising that the idea of intentionally seeking out and playing at a higher-minimum $15, $25, $50, and $100 table isn’t done more often by more skilled players.

~When you add up all of the money that you expose to disadvantaged negative-expectation random-rollers in just one trip around the table; you soon come to realize that that same money could be better spent if it was deployed on your own positive-expectation advantaged wagers.

~If that means moving your D-I act to a higher-minimum table; then so be it. It means you’ll be exposing LESS dollars to random-rollers and MORE dollars to advantaged wagering.

What could be smarter than that?

~While doing so doesn’t guarantee a profit; it at least gives your money a fighting positive-expectation chance of being able to do so.

~Instead of seeing your money slowly chiseled away by the neg-ex house-edge; the advantage-play dice-influencer turns that equation upside down…thereby empowering himself to slowly chisel away at the casino's chip-bank with his own pos-ex wagers.

~When the casino raises the bet-minimum and random-rollers start to emigrate from the table; I see that as a prime opportunity to increase the frequency and probability of turning some of the casinos money into MY money.

No hindering countermeasure here…just plain old opportunity knocking at your advantage-play door.

Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.

The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2007

I Had My Head Handed to Me on a Platter Yesterday

2007-07-24T17:33:00Z

As much as we’d like to think that successful dice-influencing is all about winning every session or making money every time you pick up the dice…it just ain’t so. Instead, the successful dice-influencer will mostly have winning sessions, and will mostly come away with a profit…but not all the time. In fact some sessions can get downright ugly. I had one of those ‘ugly’ sessions yesterday, although the word ugly doesn’t even come close to describing how badly I shot. In actual fact my shooting itself wasn’t all that ugly, it’s just that I was just missing the right combination of a correct on-axis toss, landing zone accuracy, ideal throwing energy, and an acceptable amount of backwall rebounding and rollout. Combined, they conspired to collectively frustrate all of my dice-influencing efforts to the point where I could throw perfect unintentional 7-Outs within one or two tosses of establishing my Rightside PL-Point. Hell, when I’m trying to intentionally 7-Out when I’m shooting from the Darkside, it still takes me an average of around 3.2 rolls to purposely do that. Yesterday it was taking an average of 2.6 rolls to accidentally do it. Since my toss wasn’t looking that bad, and because I was only missing my intended landing zone by a small margin, and since my toss-energy and its resultant backwall rebounding wasn’t so wild as to be unmanageable; I decided to continue playing and persist in fixing what appeared to be a very minor set of problems. Well, I’ll give myself partial credit for at least trying to fix the problem at the table; however I’m also going to deduct some major points because none of it worked well enough to bail out what turned out to be a major losing session. While I did manage to get my toss back on-axis for the most part, and I did manage to dial down my throwing-energy to a satisfactory level, and my landing-zone targeting did improve; none of it was quite good enough to turn that session into a winning one nor did it come close to bailing out the losses that I incurred along the way. Instead I took a major loss, but I also took away a lesson in terms of accepting the fact that every session won’t be a winning one (no matter how long of a win-streak you might have been on) and every time I pick up the dice it won’t always be a money-making hand (again, no matter how long it’s been between losses and regardless of what your average earnings-per-hand has been up until now). Having your head handed to you on a platter once in a while certainly brings perspective to your game. It’s not a pleasant thing for sure; but having an occasional losing session puts all the winning ones into a much more appreciative light...but now that I'm back to truly appreciating the wins, I want to get right back to continuing the wins. Any of you Southern guys got a good recipe for Freshly Severed Head? Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life. The Mad Professor Copyright © 2007

My Not-So-Random Thought For July 24th, 2007

2007-07-24T17:31:30Z

I Had My Head Handed to Me on a Platter Yesterday...

]]> As much as we’d like to think that successful dice-influencing is all about winning every session or making money every time you pick up the dice…it just ain’t so.

Instead, the successful dice-influencer will mostly have winning sessions, and will mostly come away with a profit…but not all the time.

In fact some sessions can get downright ugly.

I had one of those ‘ugly’ sessions yesterday, although the word ugly doesn’t even come close to describing how badly I shot.

In actual fact my shooting itself wasn’t all that ugly, it’s just that I was just missing the right combination of a correct on-axis toss, landing zone accuracy, ideal throwing energy, and an acceptable amount of backwall rebounding and rollout.

Combined, they conspired to collectively frustrate all of my dice-influencing efforts to the point where I could throw perfect unintentional 7-Outs within one or two tosses of establishing my Rightside PL-Point. Hell, when I’m trying to intentionally 7-Out when I’m shooting from the Darkside, it still takes me an average of around 3.2 rolls to purposely do that. Yesterday it was taking an average of 2.6 rolls to accidentally do it.

Since my toss wasn’t looking that bad, and because I was only missing my intended landing zone by a small margin, and since my toss-energy and its resultant backwall rebounding wasn’t so wild as to be unmanageable; I decided to continue playing and persist in fixing what appeared to be a very minor set of problems.

Well, I’ll give myself partial credit for at least trying to fix the problem at the table; however I’m also going to deduct some major points because none of it worked well enough to bail out what turned out to be a major losing session.

While I did manage to get my toss back on-axis for the most part, and I did manage to dial down my throwing-energy to a satisfactory level, and my landing-zone targeting did improve; none of it was quite good enough to turn that session into a winning one nor did it come close to bailing out the losses that I incurred along the way.

Instead I took a major loss, but I also took away a lesson in terms of accepting the fact that every session won’t be a winning one (no matter how long of a win-streak you might have been on) and every time I pick up the dice it won’t always be a money-making hand (again, no matter how long it’s been between losses and regardless of what your average earnings-per-hand has been up until now).

Having your head handed to you on a platter once in a while certainly brings perspective to your game. It’s not a pleasant thing for sure; but having an occasional losing session puts all the winning ones into a much more appreciative light...but now that I'm back to truly appreciating the wins, I want to get right back to continuing the wins.

Any of you Southern guys got a good recipe for Freshly Severed Head?

Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.

The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2007

My Not-So-Random Thought For July 23rd, 2007

2007-07-24T06:43:12Z

Is That a Stack of Chips in Your Pocket…or Are You Just Glad to See Me?

]]> Have you ever walked up to a craps table and noticed that one of your friends or associates is there; so you immediately engage them in conversation…only to find out that they are the shooter?

Does saying, “Oops, sorry to throw you off of your game…gee, I hope that 7-Out wasn’t because I just bear-hugged you, slapped you on the back, and commented on how much weight you’ve lost since the last time we saw each other” help to ease the pain of the blunder?

I read an awful lot of Trip Reports where people talk about the chit-chat they carry on during their own hand…or ones they have with a skilled shooter when he is shooting.

Sometimes it’s something innocuous like, “Wow, the dice are behavin’ well tonight”, or “Keep it goin’ bud, you are doin’ great”.

Sometimes it’s a little more detailed like, “Your right-die is flipping off-axis as soon as it hits the backwall, you might try re-aligning your third-finger a bit; oh and the two dice are starting to split in flight, so you should ease off on your thumb-pressure as well.”

Sometimes there’s a bit of an impatient reminder that one of the non-shooters bets haven’t been hit yet, or there’s gentle encouragement to repeat the PL-Point and soon because the person doing the talking has finally worked his way up to full-Odds.

Sometimes it’s just idle chatter about the weather or nervous banter about needing the cocktail waitress ‘cause “We’re sobberin’ up over heeeere!”

Let me ask you this:

What is the purpose of ANY conversation you are having with a skilled shooter while he is shooting?

Is it to calm him down and get his mind off of the game?

Is it to rev him up and get his mind onto the game?

Is it just nervous chatter from you to fill the lull in conversation while he is trying to make money?

Is it because you are excited and you want him to be just as excited as you are?

Again, ask yourself, what is the purpose of ANY conversation you are having with a skilled shooter while he is shooting?

Most skilled shooters complain about the fact that it is hard for them to maintain any kind of throw-to-throw-to-throw consistency let alone any kind of reliable hand-to-hand-to-hand performance.

How much of that do you think is attributable to the meaningless conversation that goes on between many of those throws?

How much of that is attributable to conversations or comments that the shooter himself starts up between throws?

If you are the kind of shooter who can unreel a steady stream of 20-roll hands while reciting Hamlet’s soliloquy, juggling ashtrays and doing a dead on impression of Henny Youngman…all at the same time and all without breaking a sweat; then go ahead and yuk it up with the crew and your tablemates.

However, if you can’t do all of that, especially the steady stream of 20-roll hands part; then shut up and concentrate on your shooting.

If you are the kind of player who doesn’t like to make money, and doesn’t like to see friends or associates win money either; then continue distracting the shooter as much as possible when he is shooting.

If you are the shooter, you may think that acting all casual and such is the way to stay under the radar while you are shooting; but frankly, chances are that the radar is only going to detect a shooter who nervously rambles on about nothing…all while LOSING.

Focus on each and every throw that you make as if it is THE throw.

When that throw is finished; start focusing on the next throw because that one is THE throw, and so on.

If you want to talk to the shooter who is in the middle of what looks like a pretty decent roll; how about waiting until it’s over. Almost anything you have to say can wait until then.

Likewise, if you are the shooter, any idle comments you make that don’t contribute to your game ARE NOT NEEDED. They just divert your focus…and your potential profit.

So whether it’s just idle chatter, nervous banter, near-worthless chit-chat, or to find out where the gang is having dinner tonight…it can probably wait until this hand is over.

Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.

The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2007

Brantford Casino...a brief Trip Report

2007-07-22T12:51:43Z

Well I finally had a chance to check out the new craps table at Brantford Casino. I have to agree with all of the preliminary reports on this one...it is very playable.]]> With time we can educate everyone about toking". They got a kick out of that, especially when two of the other players got into a nice little toking rhythm when I chided them that, "The good times usually continue to roll if you get the dealers really INTO the game". When my good hands continued after that, I'd say something along the lines of, "See that, the dealers are in the game, and the hand goes long...when you leave them out, luck leaves the hand". The other guys had been rolling lousy during most of their turns and were not toking when they shot. I figured, hey, why not use everyone's own superstitions to further ingratiate myself to the crew...I'll be back and I want them to treat me like the prodigal son when I do. Two-and-a-half hours of play...a ton of shooting opportunities...and much more profit than I ever expected from a first time casino visit/recon trip. I like the 5x-Odds, and I love the neutrality of the table. Actually I want to ammend that. I think the table is heavily on the nearly dead end of the layout-liveliness scale; and as such it plays like a couple of my favorite LV-Mirage tables. In the future, if I set it up so that I'm once again there (mid-week) a little before the table opens; I'm thinking that Brantford can be added as a permanent occasional stop on my gaming itinerary. I haven't told any of the other D-I pro's and semi-pro's on the Northern Circuit about this off-prime opportunity; but I'm sure they'll find out about it soon enough. Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life. The Mad Professor Copyright © 2007

My Not-So-Random Thought For July 16th, 2007

2007-07-16T18:48:57Z

If You Need a 20-Roll Hand to Make Money; Then Never Blame Your Losses on PSO’s

]]> Have you ever read a string of trip reports where a group of guys will lament the fact that their shared session, though peppered liberally with a bunch of 12 to 15-roll hands, and a few Point-then-Seven-Outs, “Never really got things going because nobody could muster a decent 20-roll hand to put everyone into a profit position".

Well let me let you in on a little secret:

If you need a 20-roll hand to “get you over the hump”; then your sessions will almost always show a net-loss.

More over, your losses will almost always outpace your wins; but even when they don’t, your profit will almost never be enough to offset your previous losses.

Oh sure, you’ll REMEMBER all those winning sessions like they are the names of your grandchildren, and you’ll be able to instantly recall many of the facts during its countless retelling when you gather with friends; but again the truth is:

If you need a 20-roll hand to make money; then your losses will almost always outstrip your wins. No matter how good you get at this dice-influencing thing that we do, you are always going to throw an occasional PSO (Point-then-7-Out). However, if you scratch just a bit below the surface; you’ll find that PSO’s ARE NOT the reason you need 20-roll hands to make a profit.

The reason for those losses can almost always be traced back to THE WAY you are currently structuring your bets. If your wagers are set up in such a way as to require multiple presses before they show a net-sessional profit; then you are going to be disappointed way more often than you’ll be elated.

Even though talented dice-influencers throw quite a few more 20-roll hands that we expect from random-rollers (to the tune of 1.76 times more frequently for an SRR-7 shooter, and 2.66 times more frequently for an SRR-8 shooters, and 3.65 times more frequently for an SRR-9 shooter); the fact is that 20-roll hands while seeming to be quite common, are not all that frequent when you put it into perspective of the average number of rolls that occur between each incidence of 20-roll hands.

…and if you are counting on random-rollers to save the day for you; then do yourself a favor…

Rip up your money into tiny little pieces and mail it into the casino.

That way, you’ll save the gas money. Likewise, if you try to rely on random-rollers to bail out your own off-day or off-session shooting; then it’s like putting your airline meal directly into the air-sickness bag.. You are saving the hassle of going through a middle-man and the trouble of actually eating the meal. A random-roller can sometimes serendipitously save your session; but most times it’s the major cause of a net-loss in the first place and the chief reason why you need all those bloody 20-roll hands to generate a net-profit.

Face it, you’re a little too old to believe in fairy tales, and you’re also a little too old to believe that you can turn a random-rollers neg-ex rolls into a reliable steady pos-ex payer OFTEN ENOUGH to make any money at it.

The other reason that you need 20-roll hands is because your current betting is geared towards the long-hand end of the duration spectrum. Again though, even in the hands of a talented shooter or a small group of talented shooters; those 20-roll hands don’t occur frequently enough to show an OVERALL net-profit.

Don’t delude yourself into thinking that you are betting in an advantageous way, or that this even comes close to realizing more than a small portion of the potential of your currently influenced tosses…it does not.

Instead, you have a situation where failure is almost guaranteed.

Oh sure, there will be times when you or other talented shooters DO string together a number of 20-roll hands in the same session; and those sessions will join the others that bear retelling when you gather over coffee or beer; but the reason they are so vividly recallable is because of their rareness of occurrence. I’m not saying that they don’t occur or that they don’t occur quite frequently; rather I’m saying that they don’t occur often enough to bail your ass out of all the other losses you incur WAITING for those 20-roll hands to happen.

So go ahead and enjoy the casino experience, and go ahead and enjoy the comps that go along with those losses; but don’t delude yourself into thinking that you are even coming CLOSE to taking proper advantage of the influenced rolls that you throw.

If you need a 20-roll hand to make money; then you automatically give up all rights to blame your losses on PSO’s; because it’s the way you bet on EVERYTHING ELSE other than Point-then-7-Outs, that doesn’t take proper advantage of your current skill.

If you DO throw more 20-roll hands than PSO’s; then fine bet it up, but if you don’t; then don’t BET like you do!

Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.

The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2007

My Not-So-Random Thought For July 15th, 2007

2007-07-15T23:32:52Z

Will Winning 50% of Your PL-Points Make You Rich…Stinking Rich…or Obscenely Wealthy?

]]> Let’s keep this simple:

~Let’s say that you throw just as many Come-Out losers as you do Come-Out winners. So even though a Rightsider will typically throw eight (8) C-O winners for every three (3) C-O losers for a 72.7% winning-ratio versus a 27.3% losing-ratio on the Come-Out; we’ll say that this shooters 50/50 win/loss ratio is the same during the come-out as it is during his point-cycle.

So here’s the scenario:

~This shooter throws just as many Point-Cycle winners as he does Point-Cycle losers. That means he’ll repeat his PL-Point 50% of the time and he’ll 7-Out before repeating his PL-Point about 50% of the time too.

~We’ll also assume that he doesn’t make very many second PL-Point repeaters during the same hand, and they merely offer him a break-even proposition just like the Come-Out cycle does.

The question is:

If you could win 50% of your PL-Points, would that make you Rich…Stinking Rich…or Obscenely Wealthy?

Well, let’s find out.

~Let’s say that this 50% PL-winners/50% PL-losers shooter starts out with $10 bets on the Passline and backs it with full-Odds in a 3x/4x/5x-Odds casino.

~For simplicity then, we’ll say that he starts off with $10 Passline bets and backs them with an average of $40 in Odds ($30 when the PL-Point is a 4 or 10, $40 when it’s a 5 or 9, and $60 in Odds when the PL-Point is a 6 or 8)

~That means a PL-Point repeater will pay an average of $70 when it wins ($10 in flat-bet even-money payout from his PL-wager, and an average of $60 in Odds profit).

~It also means that he’ll lose $50 when he fails to repeat his PL-Point.

~On average then, he’ll produce a net-profit of $20 more when he wins than when he loses. In case you’re keeping track of such things; that is a 20% return on investment for this 50/50 shooter (he invests/wagers a total of $100 over each of two hands, and he produces a net-profit of $20), even though he is only winning one-half of his bets.

So again I ask, if you are able to win 50% of your PL-Points while losing the other 50%; would that make you Rich…Stinking Rich…or perhaps even Obscenely Wealthy?

Let’s find out:

~At a 20% return on investment (or 10% ROI per wagered hand); it would take him an average of just five (5) hands before he doubled the money required to double his base-bet from $10 on the Passline with full 3x/4x/5x-Odds. However, there would be quite a bit of back-and forth winning-and-losing volatility built into all of that; so let’s say he played ten (10) hands before doubling his bets. That way he’d be able to build up an ever-increasing financial reserve to weather any additional volatility should it ever occur.

~At the end of ten hands; he’d have made about $100 in net-profit; so we’ll let him go ahead and increase his base-bet to $20 as well as increasing his corresponding Odds. He’ll also have built up a $50 excess profit reserve that he can add to his overall bankroll.

~At the end of another ten hands, he’ll have made an average of about $140 per winning hand, and lost an average of $100 per losing hand…for a net-profit of $200.

~Let’s have him re-invest $100 of that $200 profit so he can ratchet up his bets to $30 on the Passline that are backed with an average of $120 in Odds. The excess profit of $100 can again be added to his overall bankroll.

~When he throws another ten hands, he’ll make around $210 when he wins and his loss will be around $150 when he loses; so we;ll have him re-invest another $100 to increase his PL-bets to $40 each and he can also increase his Odds by a similar amount.

He'll also have an excess profit of $200 that can be used to augment his overall bankroll...although frankly by this point he should be getting a little more aggressive in increasing his betting-levels

Notice that he’s still making an overall 20% return on investment even as his stakes rise.

Winning 50% of your PL-Points and losing the other half, means that the power of the Odds-bet becomes the difference between making a meaningful profit…or merely breaking-even and trading dollars back and forth with the casino.

It also means the difference between making you Rich…Stinking Rich…or even Obscenely Wealthy.

Let’s jump ahead because you know exactly what’s going to happen when this shooter doubles, re-doubles, then triples, then quadruples, then quintuples his base PL-bet with it’s corresponding Odds.

So let’s get him to the point when his base-bet on the PL is $500 and he plays in stores where $2000 in Odds, though uncommon, is not extraordinary to the point of raising pit-heat to an unbearable level.

~Okay, the flat PL-portion of his wagers is now $500 and he backs it with an average of $2000 in Odds.

~That means when he wins, he’ll be making an average of $3500; and when he loses, his loss per hand will be around $2500…for a net average profit of $500 per hand.

Over two hands where $2500 is wagered on each (for a total investment of $5000); he’ll produce an average net profit of $1000…and his 20% R.O.I. remains rock-steady no matter how high or how low his playing stakes are…and as long as his 50/50 win-some/lose-some win/loss ratio stays the same…so will his return-on-investment.

~For each ten additional hands that this player throws; he’ll be garnering an additional $5000 in net-profit. Even a mere hundred (100) hands per week will rake in an average of $50,000/week.

Now obviously you aren’t going to get obscenely wealthy off of making $50k/per-week; but it can make you somewhat rich if you are willing to take your D-I show on the road and spread your play all around the world.

Here’s something to ask yourself:

All other things being equal, if you can win about 50% of your PL-Points; then why isn’t your money growing anywhere near what it could be?

If your shooting isn’t holding you back; then it must be something else in your decision-making process that is.

As always,

Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.

The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2007

My Not-So-Random Thought For Friday, July 13th, 2007

2007-07-14T08:33:10Z

My Darkside-Shooting Come-Out Strategy

]]> My approach to making money from the Come-Out cycle when I'm shooting from the Don't is obviously very similar to the way I make this play on the Rightside, only the 3 and 11 reverse their position in the pressing order and I see a fair bit more DP line-bet dilution due to the high appearance rate of C-O loser-7’s.

Ø Using the S-6 dice-set, I wager so that my DP-bet equals my C-O World-bet.

Ø That is, if I’ve got a $25 wager on the Don’t Pass line; then I’ll also make a $25 World-bet (aka “whirl” bet), which cover the 7, 2, 3, 11 and 12 with one $5 betting-unit on each.

Ø I also make a $5 bet on the Hard-4 and Hard-10 that I “work on the Come-out”.

Ø In some jurisdictions, the Hardways are automatically “on” during the C-O, while in other places they are “off” unless called (and marked with a lammer) as “on”, so you'll want to make sure that your bets are 'on' when you want them to be.

Ø The S-6 set contains both an on-axis H-4 and H-10. As a Darksider, I want to avoid the C-O 7 so I set two of the Straight-Sixes primary-faces on the H-4 and H-10, while the other two faces are the two aces (2), and the two sixes (12).

Ø Obviously if I was using this set as a Rightside shooter, I’d be transposing those Hardways into intentional 5/2 and 2/5 7’s and looking for dedicated C-O PL-winners as well as the Horn/World hits. That not being the case with a DP wager on the line; I make the most of it by collecting from the high-ratio of H-4 and H-10 primary-faced hits that this set produces.

Ø You could just as easily modify this approach with a more conservative approach by using a $5 DP-bet, a $5 World-bet, and $1 each on the Hard-4 and Hard-10...or you could step up to a starting base bet, as I often do, to $50 on the Don't Pass...with corresponding $50 starting-value World-bets.

Ø If my Darkside C-O outcome is a double-pitch 7...then my World-bet stays at its initial value, and I replace my DP wager along with the two HW-bets on the 4 and 10.

Let me add another side-note on the element of intentionally using a 7-dominant set knowing full well the S-6 has four on-axis 7-losers on it.

Ø If a 7 rolls on the C-O, the World-bet is self-sustaining in that it’s a “push” (no gain and no loss), but your DP flat-bet has to be replaced.

Ø I balance that off with the single appearance of the 2 and 12, along with the double appearance of the 3 and 11.

Ø With the high-ratio payouts on each of those Horn-numbers, the sting of having to replace your DP bet if a 7 or 11 shows up, is offset with the quinella-type double payoff if a 2 or 3 shows up.

In addition to that, the appearance of a $5 Hard-4 or Hard-10 not only pays off quite nicely, it concurrently sets a (relatively) tough-to-repeat PL-Point.

Though it’s not a perfect-world scenario, I’ve found that the S-6 still generates net-profit…and does so in spades when the dice end up on one of their primary-faces, and especially if I bring in back-to-back-to-back Horn-number repeaters.

So let’s continue our look at how I book a progression when I get repeating Horn-outcomes.

Ø If the first outcome is an 11...I keep the World-bet at its initial level and I replace my DP-wager. That means that my first hit on an 11 generates a net-profit of $30.

Ø If the outcome is a 3...I double the World-bet to $50, and maintain the same initial $25 bet for my DP-wager. That means that a 3 (along with the DP even-money payment) generates a net-profit (after the World-bet is pressed) of $55.

Ø If the outcome is a 2 or 12...I once again double the World-bet to $50, but still keep the same initial bet for the DP-line. That means that a 2 generates a net-profit (after the World-bet is pressed) of $130, while a 12 generates a net-profit (after the World-bet is pressed) of $105.

On the very next C-O decision...

Ø If the outcome is a 7...I keep the same bet for both the World and the DP. If the World is at $50, then it stays at $50, but I almost always keep my DP base-bet at $25 no matter how large the World-bet grows. Again, this acts to minimize the impact of an on-axis C-O DP 7-loser. I concurrently replace the two $5 wagers on the working Hard-4 and Hard-10 once again if the Come-Out 7 rolls.

Ø Though this may look like a very costly way to get the profit from those six possible on-axis Horn appearances, a couple of years of closely tracked in-casino play validates the net-profitability (some would even say, the OUTSTANDING net-profitability) of this betting-method.

However, let me say right here and now that you have to do your own homework to find out what betting-approach and set-selection works best for YOU. Obviously everyone’s mileage may vary.

Ø Please DO NOT use ANY of my methods without first validating them while using YOUR dice-rolling performances and factoring in your own bankroll and bet-making comfort levels. It is your money and your responsibility to determine whether or not ANY betting-method is right for you, your bankroll and your dice-throwing skills. I urge you to use the utmost caution when you are trying any new method or betting-approach out for the first time.

Ø If on the second Come-Out roll the outcome is an 11...I replace the DP and increase the World-bet by one $25 unit.

Ø If the outcome is a 3...I increase my current World-bet by two more base-units (of $25 each for a current total of $100 on the World), but I still keep the same initial $25 bet on the DP.

Ø If the outcome is a 2 or 12...I increase my current World-bet by three base-units (a $75 increase).

On any subsequent Horn-payers, I add one additional unit to the previous scale.

Now...

Ø I press the World with a further two-unit ($50) increase if the 11 rolls.

Ø I press the World with a further three-unit ($75) increase if the 3 rolls.

Ø I press the World with a further four-unit ($100) increase if the 2 or 12 rolls.

As you can see the required replacement of a lost DP line-bet has less and less significance as your World-action increases. If I'm fortunate enough to get another Horn-hit, I do the same "add one unit to the previous scale" thing, as in…

Ø I press the World with a further three-unit increase if the 11 rolls.

Ø I press the World with a further four-unit increase if the 3 rolls.

Ø I press the World with a further five-unit increase if the 2 or 12 rolls.

I haven't gotten all of this press-the-World action past the next progression more than three or four dozen times, but the net revenue-generation has been quite amazing WITHOUT causing any undue pit attention.

Yes, in high loss-tolerance houses, the pit does notice when the Horn is repeating more than four or five times in a row, especially if more than a couple of players are on (or there are big stakes on it), but it hasn’t resulted in more than a passing interest to make sure that the stickman calls out the correct Prop-payments to the base dealer.

More importantly though, it seems that when a Darksider builds up his C-O action to these kinds of levels; there is much LESS pit-concern than if a Rightside-shooter is doing the exact same thing.

In any event, the next progression (if another Horn repeats again), looks like this:

Ø I press the World with a further four-unit increase if the 11 rolls.

Ø I press the World with a further five-unit increase if the 3 rolls.

Ø I press the World with a further six-unit increase if the 2 or 12 rolls.

At this point, your World-bet can reach the $500 mark (using $25 base-units) if you’ve had the C-O results that see you using the maximum unit-increase on each one of those steps (such as if the 2 or 12 has been rolling), and this is also the point where you will very likely reach the maximum allowable prop-bet payout at many casinos.

Since some houses restrict the maximum Prop-bet to a level that would see the maximum allowable payout to be made (as set by casino policy), you’re likely not going to be allowed to raise your World-action much beyond this point.

A Final Reminder

Obviously we should always be trying to shoot for the bets where we have the highest edge over the house (and that usually does not include high-ratio payout prop-bets), and that remains true even for Darkside-shooting; however in situations where you have a validated strong advantage on those same props; some Come-Out action can offer a very compelling jumpstart to any hand.

As always,

Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.

The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2007

My Not-So-Random Thought for April 10th, 2007

2007-07-14T07:40:53Z

How an SRR-6.5 Shooter Can Double and Then Re-Double his $1000 Bankroll…With Virtually No Risk-of-Ruin

]]> I’m going to tell you something that is not only controversial, but it’s also something that almost no one here will believe…nevertheless, it remains true.

If you are a shooter with an SRR of around 6.5, you can Same-Bet Your Edge to Success.

When I say ‘same-bet’, I’m merely talking about making wagers of the same-value all of the time.

The only time you increase your bet is when your gaming bankroll doubles…and in that case, you double the bet-size value of that same set of wagers.

Now understandably, that idea is controversial because it flies in the face of conventional gambling wisdom that says you should always increase your bets when winning and always decrease your bets when losing.

It is also controversial because the whole idea of flat-betting (neither increasing nor decreasing your wagers during a given hand) has always been thought of as producing an overall zero-sum game (by having your wins cancel out your losses and vice versa).

However, for dice-influencers who play with at least a bit of an edge over the house, that outmoded fallacy couldn’t be further from the truth. Frankly though, when betting on random-rollers (if you have to bet on them at all); the old advice that you should increase your bets when winning and decrease your bets when losing; remains fairly solid.

However, when a dice-influencer plays with an edge over the house, that advice doesn’t always make sense.

Let’s look at a prime example where my Same-Bet Your Edge to Success idea does make tremendous financial sense.

~Let’s say you have a very modest bankroll of $1000 to go along with your modest shooting-skills and you aren’t prepared to put out more than let’s say an average of $50 or so on your own validated skills at any one time.

~Let’s also say that you are one of the many players who have a hard time disconnecting your anxiety from the amount of money that you sometimes have on the layout when you’ve pressed things up.

~That is, during a nice hand where you’ve pressed-up your winning-bets like conventional wisdom says you should; the added stress of seeing that much of your own money on the table starts to mess with your shooting-concentration…and you subsequently 7-Out shortly thereafter due almost entirely to distracted focus.

If that sounds familiar to what happens to you during some of your own hands; then my Same-Bet Your Edge to Success concept is designed specifically for you.

Taking all of that “When should I press, when should I regress, when should I turn everything off?” stress out of the equation lets you focus on your de-randomized shooting…all the while your bankroll keeps growing at a very steady and predictable rate.

Now before you start thinking that I’ve given up recommending the use of Initial Steep Regressions (for properly bankrolled players), or that I’m recommending that you shouldn’t press your bets up if doing so doesn’t affect the “crap between your ears” or doesn’t affect your shooting-focus…I am not!

Instead, I’m simply telling you that if you have very modest shooting skills and an equally modest gaming-bankroll to go along with those limited dice-influencing abilities…and the anxiety of changing your mid-hand bets has a tendency to mess with your mind; then my Same-Bet Your Edge to Success concept can definitely solve all of those problems in a very persuasive and profitable way.

Now before you also start thinking about how many hits it is going to take for example for a multi-number global-bet to pay for itself before breaking through to an actual profit by using this same-bet method…you can stop right here.

My Same-Bet Your Edge to Success method is designed to essentially cover just one major bet only.

That’s right, I am talking about making simple Passline bets and backing them with simple Odds only…and that is all.

Yep, that’s right. There’s no Horn-bets, no Hopping Parlays, and not even any Place-bets involved. This method is for players with modest SRR’s in the 6.5 range and with very modest bankrolls.

If you are an SRR-6.5 shooter and you are making high-risk, high-erosion bets while using an insufficiently sized bankroll; then I can almost guarantee that your current D-I skills aren’t yet showing an overall net-profit…and they likely never will.

Sure, you’ll sometimes have outstanding sessions where you’ll walk with a profit; but I’m talking about the overall net-profit that your current shooting and current high-erosion bets DON’T produce.

If your shooting is in the SRR-6.5 range (6.3 to 6.7) and you are making those kinds of wagers; then an honest appraisal of where your overall net-profit stands will almost always show a net overall loss.

What I am saying is that it simply doesn’t have to be that way.

I am also saying that even with a very modest $1000 bankroll, you can double it...and keep on re-doubling it through simple PL w/Odds same-bet wagers.

With a modest SRR and an equally modest bankroll, frankly you can’t really afford to be betting on anything other than the Passline and backing it with Odds without putting undue strain and risk on your bankroll…and undue stress on your shooting-concentration.

Now as some of you roll your eyes at the simplicity and minimalism of my Same-Bet Your Edge to Success idea, let me quickly add that using this modest shooting-skill/modest gaming-bankroll method provides such an incredibly low-volatility, low risk-of-ruin way to double your bankroll with none of the bet-sizing anxiety normally associated with high starting-value bets like an ISR, that it also has the added benefit of eliminating all of the second-guessing apprehension and angst normally associated with pressed-up mid-hand bet-values.

So why should you listen to advice that you’d never hear from a certifiable dice-shooting instructor?

Well, because following this advice allows you to double your current bankroll with an incredibly low risk-of-ruin (where you’d lose the entire $1000 starting amount); and it allows you to keep doubling your starting bankroll without any increase in risk.

So that means, even if your SRR-rate never increases or never improves beyond the SRR-6.5 range; with my Same-Bet Your Edge to Success method, your bankroll can continue to double and re-double as long as you stick to the most basic of bets.

Now I’ll be the first to agree that any method that involves no pressing…no regressing…and no parlaying is not the most exciting betting approach ever devised…but like I said, it is the one that will allow you to double…and re-double your starting bankroll again and again and again with the lowest possible risk…and it simply involves making the same-sized PL w/Odds bet each and every time you shoot with your small advantage over the house.

So How Does It Work?

~Let’s say you have a total bankroll of about $1000 and you normally play at $10 tables.

~With an SRR of 6.5 at a casino that allows 10x-Odds, you will have about a 5% advantage over the house.

~If you play in a 3x/4x/5x-Odds casino, your PL w/Odds wager will have about a 3.7% edge over the house.

~That 3.7% advantage is comprised of a 1.75% edge when the PL-Point is a 4 or 10, a 3.2% edge when your Point is a 5 or 9, and a 6.2% advantage when your PL-Point is a 6 or 8.

~In practical terms, let’s say that you play in the 3x/4x/5x-Odds casino; so when the dice are in your hands, your average bet will be $10 on the Passline and an average of $40 in Odds.

~That is $30 in Odds when the PL-Point is a 4 or 10, $40 in Odds when the Point is a 5 or 9, and $50 in Odds when your PL-Point is a 6 or 8.

Now granted, an average wager of $50 in total 7-exposure bets on a $1000 bankroll is a little high when strictly viewed from a Kelly Criterion point of view; but since we aren’t exposing our money to the higher-volatility/higher-erosion of wagers where the house has an even bigger advantage, we’ll actually endure less of the whipsaw unpredictability that those other wagers saddle us with.

Admittedly though, there will still be small amount of win-some lose-some volatility even with such a mundane wager like a simple PL w/Odds bet, and this is where most neophyte shooters as well as an unexpectedly large number of veteran players misunderstand the math of the game as well as the mechanics of how modest D-I skills can produce consistent profits.

Let me explain:

~A 1.75% advantage over a PL-Point of 4 or 10, means the SRR-6.5 shooter will generally fail to repeat his PL-Point about 63% of the time.

~Now on the face of it, a 37% win-percentage when the PL-Point is 4 or 10 looks terrible. However, even with such a dismal-looking 37%-to-63% win/loss ratio, that modestly skilled dice-influencer still has an advantage over the house.

Here’s how:

~Let’s say you make one-hundred PL w/Odds wagers when the Point is a 4 or 10.

~Your $10 Passline wager with its $30 in Odds will win about 37% of the time and produce a $70 payout every time it does. That means it will produce revenue of $2590.

~As discussed, with an SRR-rate of 6.5, that same bet may well lose 63% of the time and produce a $40 loss every time it does. That means it will cost you around $2520.

~Overall that will produce a rather anemic looking 1.75% return on the total money wagered on this bet. I'll quickly add that most advantage-play blackjack counters would kill to have a steady 1.75% edge over the house, but most craps players find an edge like that way too easy to dismiss out of hand...which explains why most A-P craps players can't produce an overall profit even though their validated shooting indicates ungodly edges over the house.

I’ll also add that if you make that same play with 10x-Odds, your edge over the house jumps to 7.63%.

Granted, most players who endure a 63% failure-rate when their PL-Point is a 4 or 10 may not feel like they are playing a net-positive game, but that is exactly what they are playing, and if they have a very modest bankroll; then my Same-Bet Your Edge to Success method is the best way to double their current bankroll and to keep on doubling it even if their shooting never improves beyond the SRR-6.5 range.

Let’s take the PL-Point of 5 or 9 to illustrate this a little further:

~A random-roller will likely repeat his PL-Point of 5 or 9 about 40% of the time.

~Let’s say that our shooter hits it about 43% of the time. That means he’ll be 7’ing-Out before repeating it, about 57% of the time.

~Again though, even with that 43%-to-57% imbalance between winning PL-Points and losing PL-Points on a 3x/4x/5x-Odds table, he’ll still produce a 3.2% return on his total PL w/Odds investment.

If he steps it up to 10x-Odds at a higher-Odds house; his edge climbs to 11.55%.

Take a similar look when the PL-Point is a 6 or 8:

~A random-roller will likely repeat it about 45.5% of the time.

~Let’s say that our shooter hits it about 49% of the time. That means he’ll be 7’ing-Out before repeating it, about 51% of the time.

~Even with the 49%/51% imbalance between repeating and not repeating his PL-Points on a 3x/4x/5x-Odds table, he’ll produce a 6.2% return on his total PL w/Odds investment.

If he brings those exact same shooting skills to a 10x-Odds casino; his edge climbs to 6.91%.

Another way to look at all of this is that a 63% failure-rate on the 4 and 10, a 57% failure-rate on the 5 and 9, and a 51% failure-rate on the 6 and 8, would actually be a winning percentage and produce net-positive results.

Like I said though, most neophyte shooters as well as an unexpectedly large number of veteran players misunderstand the math of the game as well as the mechanics of how modest D-I skills can produce consistent profits…so they put their insufficiently financed wagers on what appear to be easier higher-risk/higher-reward pickings…only to find that when they look at their overall winnings…their bankroll is STILL firmly entrenched in negative territory.

Simply stated, when using my Same-Bet Your Edge to Success method, a shooter with an SRR-rate of 6.5 may still see a fair bit of win-some/lose-some variance from hand to hand and even session to session; so it means that he needs steel-nerved discipline in order to stay the course...but it also means that if he does stay the course, he can continue to use his modest skills to keep doubling and re-doubling his bankroll...with virtually no risk-of-ruin.

Good Luck and Good Skill at the tables…and in Life.

The Mad Professor

Not-So-Random Thought For June 4,2007

2007-07-13T11:53:06Z

Is MGM Detroit's GOLDEN DICE Bet a Golden Opportunity?

]]> As I promised over on the DiceInstitute M-board yesterday; here is my initial report on playing MGM Detroit's Golden Dice prop.

When I hear about a new craps wager (like the 4-Rolls-No-7, or the Fire-bet, or the Small, Tall & All, etc.), I first look at how the bet is structured by its creator in order to determine how it is randomly set up to win for the house...and how it can best be won by me using de-randomized outcomes.

I'll even war-game it on my at-home table to look at potential angles-of-attack in terms of possible dice-permutations, different trigger-points at which to increase my initial wager, and to find potential pitfalls or unforeseen obstacles that don't at first appear on paper, but invariably show up when the dice meet the felt.

Once I am satisfied that the bet is beatable...and that it's likely beatable by me; I'll do a recon of the game and watch it in action for a hand or two to see if it plays out the way I understand the wager to work.

Once that is done, I step up to buy-in to give it a try.

So that brings us up to late last night and early this morning.

I can tell you that MGM Detroit's Golden Dice bet does play out as previously described.

Essentially, it pays according to the number of Passline wins a player throws before 7'ing-Out. So a 'win' is made by either rolling a 7 or 11 on the Come-Out, or by making a PL-Point repeater. Rolling a 2, 3, or 12 on the come out roll does not affect the bet in any way.

~If you or the player you bet on throws four or fewer Passline winners...you get nothing.

About 45% of my Golden Dice bets (10-out-of-22 hands that I threw) fell into this non-winning category.

~If you or the player you bet on throws 5 or 6 PL winners, your bet is paid off at 5-to-1.

About 32% of my G-D bets (7-out-of-22 hands) fell into this pay-scale, including my first attempt. Unfortunately I only had $5 on it to see how things went. I subsequently stepped things up to the $25 G-D mark on the balance of my own hands.

~If you or the player you bet on throws 7 or 8 PL winners, your bet is paid off at 10-to-1.

About 18% of my G-D bets (4-out-of-22) ended up reaching this pay-tier.

~If you or the player you bet on throws 9 or 10 PL winners, your bet is paid off at 25-to-1.

Unfortunately, only one of my hands (4.5% of the total thrown) managed to reach this level of the G-D bet.

~If you or the player you bet on throws 11 or 12 PL winners, your bet is paid off at 50-to-1.

~If you or the player you bet on throws 13 or 14 PL winners, your bet is paid off at 100-to-1.

~If you or the player you bet on throws 15 or 16 PL winners, your bet is paid off at 1000-to-1.

~If you or the player you bet on throws 17, 18, or 19 PL winners, your bet is paid off at 2000-to-1.

~If you or the player you bet on throws 20 or more PL winners, your bet receives a max-payoff of $5000 regardless of the amount of your Golden Dice bet.

As I mentioned previously, my plan was to threw an average of two C-O winners for every one PL-Point repeater, and by averaging a hoped-for minimum of two PL-Point repeaters per hand (for a total of eight Passline winners if you include the anticipated C-O winners at the start of my third hand)...it would produce an average second-tier winning payout of 10:1.

Well, that was the plan, but I only hit that particular pay-scale four out of twenty-two attempts.

What did I learn?

~MGM Grand Detroit's tables remain a little too inconsistent to my attempts at taming them.

~Using the Yo-Trey permutation of the S-6 (Straight-Sixes) dice-set does not produce the best Come-Out cycle results for this bet, at least it doesn't for me.

~By going with the All-7 permutation of the HW-set for the Come-Out, I was able to get very close to a G-D payout on nearly every hand...including the 10 hands where I failed to meet the minimum PL-wins threshold. That was perhaps the most frustrating aspect of this bet...getting close by throwing three or four PL-winners...and not getting anything but the regular PL-payout as my reward.

~I found myself trying a little harder to snipe out PL-Point repeaters, especially when I got past the five PL-winners threshold.

~There was very little pit-attention, even when the 25:1 third-stage payout was made.

~I have mixed feelings about this bet.

On the one hand, the single $625 third-stage payout was nice, as were the multiple second-stage $125 payouts (save for the initial $25 winner on my first hand), and the small handful of $250 payers.

On the other hand, most players who bet the Golden Dice wager were complaining that it wasn't so much that it was hard to win it; it was that the first-stage 5:1 payout was too low to make it worth their while.

I'm going to have to give this one a little more thought...and perhaps a few more sessions until I make my mind up as to whether I like the Golden Dice bet...or whether I really LOVE it.

As always,

Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.

My Not-So-Random Thoughts 7/8/07

2007-07-09T01:08:02Z

I hadn’t even been planning to play on this particular date, not because of some aversion to the number seven; but because I had planned to camp out in front of the big screen to watch the LiveEarth concert.

]]> A 7-7-07 Trip Report

Frankly though, I was bored after the first couple of hours of watching; so when Ms. MP offered to tape it while editing out the lulls, I decided the siren call of the casino on such an auspicious date should not be ignored.

More often than not, my normal play when I am shooting at one of my home casinos, is to shoot as a Rightsider and extend the duration of each hand as long as possible.

Now I’ll be the first to tell you that I don’t believe in any of the superstitious stuff that makes sane people make irrational decisions; but I thought that I’d use the actual 7-7-07 date as an in-casino excuse to change up my play a little bit…grab a chunk of casino gold…and still stay under the radar by appearing to adhere to most people’s groundless exuberance over this particular date.

On The Come-Out

Though I usually use a very aggressive Game-Within-A-Game strategy for Darkside shooting; for this session, I chose instead to establish the anti PL-Point as quickly as possible by using a minor-7 dice-set for the Come-Out cycle before switching over to a 7-dominant set for the Point-Cycle itself.

In this case, I used the traditionally arranged V-2 set for the Come-Out.

Now even though its on-axis outcomes evenly distribute the box-numbers right across the board (two 4’s, two 5’s, two 6’s, two 8’s, two 9’s, and two 10’s); I have found that it produces significantly more of the Darkside-desired Outside-numbers (4 and 10) than the other minor-7 sets do…but with the trade-off of producing less on-axis Come-Out winning 2’s and 12’s offered by the X-6 set.

To my mind, that trade-off for this kind of shooting was worth it.

Even though I was giving up some even-money wins from the 2 and 12 on the Come-Out (theoretically 12.5% of all on-axis X-6 Come-Out tosses versus 0% of the O/A V–2 tosses); I was more than making up for it by establishing easier-to-knock-off PL-Points of 4 or 10 more often (theoretically the on-axis V-2 should establish the 4 or 10 as the PL-Point about 28.6% of the time versus the on-axis X-6 set, which should establish the PL-Point of 4 or 10 about 16.6% of the time).

In practical fact however, when I use the V-2 for the C-O cycle, I do quite a bit better than the theoretical numbers would predicate…establishing either the 4 or 10 as PL-Point a tad over one-third (35.4%) of the time.

Now I’ll be the first to admit that establishing a tough-to-repeat PL-Point is one thing; but knocking it off with an intentional 7-Out can be something entirely different.

I’ll also be the first one to agree that knocking off your own Don’t Pass bet with a PL-winning repeater is not a pleasant thing; but then again neither is 7’ing-Out as a Rightsider either.

To my mind, if you do inadvertently repeat the PL-Point and lose your DP-wager; you still have the dice to give it another go, as opposed to the Rightsider who has to relinquish the dice to the next shooter.

To my way of thinking; getting the dice right back after shooting yourself in the foot, gives the skilled dice-influencer an opportunity to immediately redeem his shooting…and to turn a loss into a gain or at least to partially mitigate the first loss (instead of having to endure one more lap around the table until the dice are once again back in your advantaged hands).

Yes, there are many dice-influencers who can’t bring themselves to think about shooting from the Darkside for that very reason; however, they are potentially missing out on what is easily one of the most overlooked dice-influencing opportunities out there.

A Darkside Advantage-Play Perspective

In taking the strongest, most plentiful number on the dice (the 7) and mildly influencing it, instead of trying to exert a higher degree of influence over a more difficult, less plentiful number (any number other than the 7); means that a skilled shooters chances are not only less volatile, and more frequently occurring; but most importantly, it means that the advantage-player can focus ALL of his per-hand money on the one single number where he has the strongest edge over the house.

That's an advantage-play perspective that is too hard for the smart player to completely ignore.

For the Point-Cycle

My weapon of choice for the eliminating the PL-Point during the point-cycle switches back and forth between the S-6 (Straight-Sixes) set and the P-6 (Parallel-Sixes) set, depending on the PL-Point itself.

~If the PL-Point is a 4 or 10; then I use the All-Sevens permutation of the S-6 set.

~If the PL-Point is a 5 or 9; then I’ll also use the same A-7/S-6 arrangement.

~If the PL-Point is a 6 or 8; then I opt for the All-7's permutation of the Parallel-Sixes (P-6) because it only has one each on-axis 6 or 8 versus four O/A 7’s. I like the theoretical 3:1 on-axis advantage…which in practical terms of my own shooting nets out a little closer to 3.8:1 in actual outcomes when the PL-Point is 6 or 8.

The 7-7-07 Casino Landscape

I knew all of the $15 and $25 tables would be crowded, even by weekend standards; but I didn’t think the $50 and $100 tables would be quite so full as they were.

The $100 table had eleven players at it, while the $50 table only had six players…and one of my favorite shooting-spots was open at it; so that’s where I bought in.

All the dealers as well as the boxman commented when I put two quarters on the Don’t Pass line when the dice came around to me. They know me at this place as a die-hard Rightsider when it comes to my own shooting. In fact, it’s probably been about three years since I last shot from the Darkside here.

There were audible groans from my table-mates who were quick to point out that the table was already cold and had been for quite some time, so they didn’t think it was very nice of me to try to encourage the continuation of that cold spell. Of course they used much less flowery language in actually conveying their opinions in my direction.

I mentioned the 7-7-07 thing and they all nodded begrudgingly, but somewhat approvingly as to my obvious insight about such matters. I suppressed a silent smirk at the absurdity of it all so as not to blow the image of being just-another-superstitious-gambler (which is the same reason I tell them why I always set the dice too).

A Summary of My In-Casino Results

I didn’t throw that many hands, but 7-out-of-the-8 hands that I did throw turned out to be net-positive.

Total Hands Thrown:.................................8

Average Rolls to Establish PL-Point:..........1.3

Average Rolls to Disestablish PL-Point:......4.1 (including each hand-ending 7-Out, and including the 8-roll hand that included one PL-Point repeater)

Average Base-Bet:.................................$50 on Don’t Pass

Average DP-Odds:..................................$300 (6x-allowed on 3x/4x/5x-Odds table)

Average Win per 7-Out:...........................$250

Net-Win:...............................................$1850 (after adding a couple of C-O wins and subtracting a couple of C-O losers, plus the one point-cycle loss which was partially offset with a subsequent next-Point, same-hand, DP w/Odds win).

While the whole 7-7-07 thing may have been overblown a bit by the media and gamblers alike; it was nice to use it as an excuse to change things up on the shooting front a bit.

From a Darkside shooting perspective, I can definitely say that shooting for the 7 on 7-7-07, turned out to be a pretty good idea. Even at one of my home casinos, I don't think I'll wait quite so long before shooting from the Darkside again.

Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.